Generated 01 Sep 2026, 18:14 · kick-off times WEST

Daily Card

Friday 04 September 2026

Every selection below has a negative expected return. This page ranks which bet loses least, because measured across 61,412 matches nothing in this project loses nothing. The model is not used to pick — it was measured at −6.8% and its own selections are its weakest output.

-1.69%

Best available
expected return

Matches
shown

Competitions
covered

Selections
per match

Today’s Top 5

The five least-bad selections on the whole board — one per match, ranked by expected return. Featured, not endorsed: every one of them still loses.

20:05 · Ligue 1

PSG v Monaco

PSG 1X2

1.42odds

-1.69%expected

20:00 · La Liga

Betis v Real Madrid

Real Madrid 1X2

1.44odds

-2.98%expected

18:00 · Ligue 1

Lyon v Auxerre

Lyon 1X2

1.54odds

-3.92%expected

19:30 · Scottish Championship

Livingston v Stenhousem'r

Livingston 1X2

1.38odds

-4.65%expected

20:00 · Premier League

Ipswich v Liverpool

Liverpool 1X2

1.56odds

-4.91%expected

Top 3 Multis

Built from the day’s shortest-priced favourites — the accumulators most likely to actually land. Every leg multiplies the commission: watch the expected return get worse with each leg added.

The Double1.52

FC PortoFC Porto v Moreirense · 20:151.20
Club BruggeLommel SK v Club Brugge · 19:451.26

56% chance it lands-9.8% expected

The Treble2.15

FC PortoFC Porto v Moreirense · 20:151.20
Club BruggeLommel SK v Club Brugge · 19:451.26
PSGPSG v Monaco · 20:051.42

38% chance it lands-11.3% expected

The Five-Fold4.29

FC PortoFC Porto v Moreirense · 20:151.20
Club BruggeLommel SK v Club Brugge · 19:451.26
PSGPSG v Monaco · 20:051.42
LivingstonLivingston v Stenhousem'r · 19:301.38
Real MadridBetis v Real Madrid · 20:001.44

16% chance it lands-17.9% expected

Top 5 Leagues

6 matches · ranked by expected return. Click a card for stats.

18:00Ligue 1stats

Lyon v Auxerre

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Lyon1X2	1.54	5.0%	-3.92%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.69	5.7%	-4.91%
#3	Under 2.5O/U	2.15	5.7%	-6.60%
#4	Lyon -1.5AH	2.35	8.1%	-6.65%
#5	Auxerre handicapAH	1.53	8.1%	-7.99%

Market favourite: Lyon (62%) @ 1.54

Academia das Apostas pick — Lyon para vencer

Form · last 5, latest right

LyonWDWLDGF 3 · GA 1

AuxerreWWWLLGF 3 · GA 8

Points per game

Lyon2.00season · 2 gm1.60last 5

Auxerre0.00season · 2 gm1.80last 5

Head to head · LYON leads series 2-1-2

25 Apr 26Lyon 3–2 AJ Auxerre

23 Nov 25AJ Auxerre 0–0 Lyon

13 Apr 25AJ Auxerre 1–3 Lyon

27 Oct 24Lyon 2–2 AJ Auxerre

17 Feb 23AJ Auxerre 2–1 Lyon

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Monaco	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
2	Paris FC	2	1	1	0	3	0	4
3	Lille	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
4	Lyon	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
5	Rennes	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
6	Troyes	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Lens	2	1	0	1	6	4	3
8	Marseille	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
9	Angers	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
10	Strasbourg	2	1	0	1	2	5	3
11	Brest	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
12	PSG	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
13	Le Mans	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
14	Lorient	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
15	Le Havre AC	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
16	Toulouse	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
17	Nice	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
18	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	3	8	0

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:30Bundesligastats

Stuttgart v Cologne

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Stuttgart1X2	1.48	9.5%	-6.16%
#2	Over 3.5O/U	1.91	7.9%	-7.15%
#3	Under 3.5O/U	1.80	7.9%	-7.15%
#4	Stuttgart -1.5AH	2.15	8.8%	-7.35%
#5	Cologne handicapAH	1.61	8.8%	-8.70%

Market favourite: Stuttgart (62%) @ 1.48

Academia das Apostas pick — Total e Ambas marcam -> Mais de 2,5 Golos e Sim

Form · last 5, latest right

StuttgartWDLWLGF 1 · GA 5

CologneDLLWWGF 3 · GA 2

Points per game

Stuttgart0.00season · 1 gm1.40last 5

Cologne3.00season · 1 gm1.40last 5

Head to head · VFB leads series 4-0-1

14 Feb 26VfB Stuttgart 3–1 FC Cologne

28 Sep 25FC Cologne 1–2 VfB Stuttgart

24 Feb 24VfB Stuttgart 1–1 FC Cologne

30 Sep 23FC Cologne 0–2 VfB Stuttgart

18 Feb 23VfB Stuttgart 3–0 FC Cologne

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern	1	1	0	0	5	1	3
2	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	4	1	3
3	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
4	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
5	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
6	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
7	Cologne	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
8	Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
9	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
10	Mainz	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Paderborn	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
12	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
13	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
14	Hamburg	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
15	Bremen	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
16	Gladbach	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
17	Schalke	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
18	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	1	5	0

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45Serie Astats

Genoa v Como

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Under 2.5O/U	1.59	7.4%	-6.62%
#2	Como1X2	1.77	9.2%	-8.07%
#3	Over 2.5O/U	2.25	7.4%	-8.31%
#4	Genoa +0.5AH	1.95	8.7%	-8.59%
#5	Como handicapAH	1.74	8.7%	-8.59%

Market favourite: Como (52%) @ 1.77

Academia das Apostas pick — Como para vencer

Form · last 5, latest right

GenoaLLWLLGF 0 · GA 3

ComoWWWDWGF 3 · GA 2

Points per game

Genoa0.00season · 2 gm0.60last 5

Como2.00season · 2 gm2.60last 5

Head to head · COMO leads series 2-0-3

26 Apr 26Genoa 0–2 Como

15 Sep 25Como 1–1 Genoa

27 Apr 25Como 1–0 Genoa

07 Nov 24Genoa 1–1 Como

10 Apr 23Como 2–2 Genoa

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AS Roma	2	2	0	0	8	0	6
2	Inter Milan	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Milan	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Juventus	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	Atalanta	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
6	Lazio	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
7	Udinese	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
8	Como	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
9	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
10	Napoli	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
11	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
12	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
13	Lecce	2	1	0	1	2	4	3
14	Torino	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
15	Bologna	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
16	Genoa	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
17	Parma	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Monza	2	0	0	2	3	7	0
19	Venezia	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
20	Fiorentina	2	0	0	2	0	7	0

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Premier Leaguestats

Ipswich v Liverpool

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Liverpool1X2	1.56	6.0%	-4.91%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.62	6.0%	-5.20%
#3	Over 3.5O/U	2.25	6.0%	-6.89%
#4	Liverpool handicapAH	2.30	9.6%	-8.16%
#5	Ipswich1X2	5.00	6.0%	-9.01%

Market favourite: Liverpool (61%) @ 1.56

Academia das Apostas pick — Mais de 2,5 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

IpswichDWWWLGF 4 · GA 6

LiverpoolDLDDDGF 4 · GA 4

Points per game

Ipswich1.50season · 2 gm2.00last 5

Liverpool1.00season · 2 gm0.80last 5

Head to head · LIV leads series 4-0-1

25 Jan 25Liverpool 4–1 Ipswich Town

17 Aug 24Ipswich Town 0–2 Liverpool

04 Dec 02Liverpool 1–1 Ipswich Town

11 May 02Liverpool 5–0 Ipswich Town

09 Feb 02Ipswich Town 0–6 Liverpool

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
3	Hull	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
4	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	7	5	6
5	Brentford	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
6	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	Everton	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
8	Leeds	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	Brighton	2	1	0	1	7	4	3
10	Man United	2	1	0	1	5	4	3
11	Sunderland	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
12	Ipswich	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
13	Liverpool	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
14	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
15	Nottm Forest	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Fulham	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
17	Coventry	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
18	C Palace	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
19	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
20	Spurs	2	0	0	2	0	5	0

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00La Ligastats

Betis v Real Madrid

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Real Madrid1X2	1.44	6.3%	-2.98%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.80	5.6%	-4.77%
#3	Over 3.5O/U	2.00	5.6%	-6.46%
#4	Real Madrid handicapAH	2.10	8.4%	-6.98%
#5	Betis +1.5AH	1.65	8.4%	-8.32%

Market favourite: Real Madrid (65%) @ 1.44

Academia das Apostas pick — Handicap, Mais de 3 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

BetisLWWWLGF 4 · GA 5

Real MadridWWWWWGF 10 · GA 2

Points per game

Betis2.00season · 3 gm1.80last 5

Real Madrid3.00season · 3 gm3.00last 5

Head to head · RMA leads series 2-1-2

24 Apr 26Real Betis 1–1 Real Madrid

04 Jan 26Real Madrid 5–1 Real Betis

01 Mar 25Real Betis 2–1 Real Madrid

01 Sep 24Real Madrid 2–0 Real Betis

25 May 24Real Madrid 0–0 Real Betis

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	12	2	9
2	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	10	2	9
3	Atlético	3	2	1	0	7	3	7
4	Alavés	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
5	Osasuna	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
6	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
7	Betis	3	2	0	1	4	5	6
8	Deportivo	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
9	Levante	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
10	Racing	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
11	Espanyol	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
12	Athletic	3	1	0	2	3	5	3
13	Real Sociedad	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
14	Getafe	3	1	0	2	1	4	3
15	Villarreal	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
16	Valencia	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
17	Celta Vigo	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
18	Rayo	3	0	1	2	4	8	1
19	Elche	3	0	1	2	3	9	1
20	Málaga	3	0	1	2	1	7	1

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:05Ligue 1stats

PSG v Monaco

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	PSG1X2	1.42	5.0%	-1.69%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.71	7.1%	-6.33%
#3	PSG -1.5AH	2.00	9.2%	-7.76%
#4	Draw1X2	5.25	5.0%	-8.01%
#5	Over 3.5O/U	2.05	7.1%	-8.02%

Market favourite: PSG (67%) @ 1.42

Academia das Apostas pick — Handicap, Mais de 3 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

PSGWWLDDGF 4 · GA 4

MonacoLWWWWGF 3 · GA 0

Points per game

PSG1.00season · 2 gm1.60last 5

Monaco3.00season · 2 gm2.40last 5

Head to head · Series tied 2-2-1

06 Mar 26Paris Saint-Germain 1–3 AS Monaco

25 Feb 26Paris Saint-Germain 2–2 AS Monaco

17 Feb 26AS Monaco 2–3 Paris Saint-Germain

29 Nov 25AS Monaco 1–0 Paris Saint-Germain

07 Feb 25Paris Saint-Germain 4–1 AS Monaco

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Monaco	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
2	Paris FC	2	1	1	0	3	0	4
3	Lille	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
4	Lyon	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
5	Rennes	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
6	Troyes	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Lens	2	1	0	1	6	4	3
8	Marseille	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
9	Angers	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
10	Strasbourg	2	1	0	1	2	5	3
11	Brest	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
12	PSG	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
13	Le Mans	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
14	Lorient	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
15	Le Havre AC	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
16	Toulouse	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
17	Nice	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
18	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	3	8	0

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

Primeira Liga

1 match · ranked by expected return. Click a card for stats.

20:15Primeira Ligastats

FC Porto v Moreirense

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	FC Porto1X2	1.20	8.3%	-5.01%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.59	9.5%	-8.69%
#3	Moreirense handicapAH	2.10	10.6%	-9.16%
#4	Under 2.5O/U	2.15	9.5%	-10.38%
#5	FC Porto -1.5AH	1.59	10.6%	-10.50%

Market favourite: FC Porto (77%) @ 1.20

Form · last 5, latest right

FC PortoWWWWWGF 9 · GA 0

MoreirenseLDDLWGF 3 · GA 6

Points per game

FC Porto3.00season · 4 gm3.00last 5

Moreirense1.33season · 3 gm1.00last 5

Head to head · FCP leads series 4-1

15 Mar 26FC Porto 3–0 Moreirense

27 Oct 25Moreirense 1–2 FC Porto

02 May 25FC Porto 3–1 Moreirense

21 Dec 24Moreirense 0–3 FC Porto

24 Nov 24Moreirense 2–1 FC Porto

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	4	4	0	0	9	0	12
2	Sporting	4	3	1	0	12	5	10
3	Arouca	4	3	0	1	7	3	9
4	Santa Clara	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
5	Benfica	3	2	1	0	11	3	7
6	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
7	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
8	Estrela	3	1	2	0	7	6	5
9	Braga	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
10	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	3	6	4
11	Nacional	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
12	Vitória	4	1	0	3	3	5	3
13	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	2	7	3
14	FC Famalicao	4	0	2	2	2	4	2
15	Académico	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
16	Alverca	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
17	Estoril	4	0	1	3	2	7	1
18	Casa Pia	4	0	0	4	0	11	0

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

Other Top Flights

2 matches · ranked by expected return. Click a card for stats.

19:00Eredivisiestats

Sparta v PEC Zwolle

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Sparta1X2	1.80	8.5%	-7.42%
#2	Draw1X2	3.75	8.5%	-9.01%
#3	PEC Zwolle1X2	3.80	8.5%	-9.01%
#4	Under 3.5O/U	1.67	10.0%	-9.21%
#5	Sparta -0.5AH	1.74	10.9%	-10.86%

Market favourite: Sparta (51%) @ 1.80

Academia das Apostas pick — Mais de 2,5 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

SpartaLLWDLGF 7 · GA 7

PEC ZwolleLLLWLGF 4 · GA 8

Points per game

Sparta1.00season · 4 gm0.80last 5

PEC Zwolle0.75season · 4 gm0.60last 5

Head to head · PEC leads series 3-0-2

08 Mar 26Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 PEC Zwolle

08 Nov 25PEC Zwolle 1–0 Sparta Rotterdam

15 Mar 25Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 PEC Zwolle

30 Nov 24PEC Zwolle 1–0 Sparta Rotterdam

04 Feb 24Sparta Rotterdam 0–2 PEC Zwolle

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	4	4	0	0	13	3	12
2	PSV	4	3	1	0	15	5	10
3	Feyenoord	4	2	2	0	10	6	8
4	Ajax	3	2	1	0	8	2	7
5	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	11	9	7
6	Fortuna	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
7	NEC	3	2	0	1	8	4	6
8	Excelsior	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
9	FC Twente	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
10	FC Groningen	4	2	0	2	9	10	6
11	Heerenveen	4	1	2	1	5	6	5
12	Sparta	4	1	1	2	7	7	4
13	Telstar	3	1	0	2	3	8	3
14	PEC Zwolle	4	1	0	3	4	8	3
15	Willem II	3	0	1	2	4	10	1
16	ADO Den Haag	4	0	1	3	4	11	1
17	FC Utrecht	4	0	1	3	6	15	1
18	Cambuur	4	0	0	4	4	16	0

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45Pro Leaguestats

Lommel SK v Club Brugge

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Club Brugge1X2	1.26	8.3%	-5.01%
#2	Over 3.5O/U	1.74	8.7%	-7.88%
#3	Under 3.5O/U	1.95	8.7%	-7.88%
#4	Lommel SK +1.5AH	2.05	10.3%	-8.90%
#5	Club Brugge handicapAH	1.62	10.3%	-10.24%

Market favourite: Club Brugge (73%) @ 1.26

Academia das Apostas pick — Ambas equipas marcam? Sim

Form · last 5, latest right

Lommel SKDDLWWGF 6 · GA 2

Club BruggeWWWWLGF 8 · GA 2

Points per game

Lommel SK1.75season · 4 gm1.60last 5

Club Brugge2.25season · 4 gm2.40last 5

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Royal Charleroi	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
2	Club Brugge	4	3	0	1	8	2	9
3	KAA Gent	3	3	0	0	6	2	9
4	Zulte-Waregem	4	2	2	0	8	3	8
5	Standard Liege	4	2	2	0	9	6	8
6	Union SG	3	2	1	0	8	1	7
7	Genk	4	2	1	1	12	8	7
8	Lommel SK	4	2	1	1	6	2	7
9	Antwerp	4	2	1	1	10	9	7
10	Sint-Truidense	3	1	2	0	8	5	5
11	Anderlecht	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
12	Waasland-Beveren	4	1	0	3	2	10	3
13	Cercle Brugge	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
14	KV Mechelen	4	0	2	2	5	9	2
15	La Louvière	4	0	1	3	4	8	1
16	Westerlo	4	0	1	3	5	14	1
17	OH Leuven	3	0	0	3	2	8	0
18	KV Kortrijk	3	0	0	3	1	9	0

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

Lower Leagues

4 matches · ranked by expected return. Click a card for stats.

17:302. Bundesligastats

Bielefeld v St. Pauli

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Bielefeld1X2	2.15	7.2%	-6.27%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.59	8.4%	-7.63%
#3	Draw1X2	3.65	7.2%	-7.71%
#4	St. Pauli1X2	3.00	7.2%	-7.71%
#5	Bielefeld -0.5AH	2.05	9.6%	-8.14%

Market favourite: Bielefeld (43%) @ 2.15

Academia das Apostas pick — Mais de 2,5 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

BielefeldWLWLLGF 5 · GA 6

St. PauliLDDLLGF 4 · GA 5

Points per game

Bielefeld1.00season · 3 gm1.20last 5

St. Pauli0.67season · 3 gm0.40last 5

Head to head · STP leads series 2-1-2

29 Apr 23St. Pauli 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld

22 Oct 22Arminia Bielefeld 2–0 St. Pauli

21 Dec 19St. Pauli 3–0 Arminia Bielefeld

29 Jul 19Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 St. Pauli

14 Apr 19St. Pauli 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	1. FC Nürnberg	3	3	0	0	11	3	9
2	Hertha	3	3	0	0	10	4	9
3	Wolfsburg	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
4	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	10	10	6
5	Magdeburg	3	2	0	1	6	6	6
6	Kaiserslautern	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
7	Greuther Furth	3	1	1	1	7	8	4
8	Karlsruher	3	1	1	1	4	6	4
9	E Braunschweig	3	1	0	2	9	7	3
10	Bielefeld	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
11	Bochum	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
12	Cottbus	3	1	0	2	6	8	3
13	Hannover	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
14	Osnabruck	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
15	D Dresden	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
16	St. Pauli	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
17	Holstein Kiel	3	0	2	1	4	6	2
18	Darmstadt	3	0	1	2	2	4	1

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

17:302. Bundesligastats

Hannover v Karlsruher

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Hannover1X2	1.62	6.8%	-5.65%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.69	8.0%	-7.18%
#3	Karlsruher handicapAH	2.20	9.1%	-7.67%
#4	Over 3.5O/U	2.05	8.0%	-8.87%
#5	Hannover -0.5AH	1.57	9.1%	-9.01%

Market favourite: Hannover (58%) @ 1.62

Academia das Apostas pick — Hannover para vencer

Form · last 5, latest right

HannoverDLLWWGF 2 · GA 4

KarlsruherLWDWLGF 4 · GA 6

Points per game

Hannover1.00season · 3 gm1.40last 5

Karlsruher1.33season · 3 gm1.40last 5

Head to head · H96 leads series 3-2

25 Apr 26Karlsruher SC 1–3 Hannover 96

28 Nov 25Hannover 96 3–0 Karlsruher SC

04 Apr 25Karlsruher SC 1–0 Hannover 96

02 Nov 24Hannover 96 2–1 Karlsruher SC

06 May 23Karlsruher SC 2–1 Hannover 96

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	1. FC Nürnberg	3	3	0	0	11	3	9
2	Hertha	3	3	0	0	10	4	9
3	Wolfsburg	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
4	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	10	10	6
5	Magdeburg	3	2	0	1	6	6	6
6	Kaiserslautern	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
7	Greuther Furth	3	1	1	1	7	8	4
8	Karlsruher	3	1	1	1	4	6	4
9	E Braunschweig	3	1	0	2	9	7	3
10	Bielefeld	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
11	Bochum	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
12	Cottbus	3	1	0	2	6	8	3
13	Hannover	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
14	Osnabruck	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
15	D Dresden	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
16	St. Pauli	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
17	Holstein Kiel	3	0	2	1	4	6	2
18	Darmstadt	3	0	1	2	2	4	1

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:30Segunda Divisionstats

Las Palmas v Leganés

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Las Palmas1X2	1.83	8.3%	-7.23%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.95	8.7%	-7.88%
#3	Under 2.5O/U	1.74	8.7%	-7.88%
#4	Draw1X2	3.40	8.3%	-8.82%
#5	Las Palmas -0.5AH	1.77	10.0%	-9.93%

Market favourite: Las Palmas (50%) @ 1.83

Form · last 5, latest right

Las PalmasLDWWLGF 6 · GA 6

LeganésLWDWWGF 3 · GA 1

Points per game

Las Palmas2.00season · 3 gm1.40last 5

Leganés2.33season · 3 gm2.00last 5

Head to head · Series tied 2-2-1

17 Apr 26Las Palmas 2–0 Leganés

20 Sep 25Leganés 0–1 Las Palmas

18 May 25Las Palmas 0–1 Leganés

25 Aug 24Leganés 2–1 Las Palmas

18 Feb 23Leganés 0–0 Las Palmas

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Granada	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
2	Leganés	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
3	Castellón	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
4	Gijón	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
5	Mallorca	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
6	Tenerife	3	2	0	1	4	2	6
7	Las Palmas	3	2	0	1	6	6	6
8	Eibar	3	2	0	1	3	3	6
9	CD Sabadell	3	1	2	0	1	0	5
10	Girona	3	1	1	1	7	5	4
11	Celta Fortuna	3	1	1	1	5	4	4
12	Burgos	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
13	Real Sociedad II	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
14	Real Oviedo	3	1	1	1	1	1	4
15	FC Andorra	3	1	0	2	7	6	3
16	Almería	3	1	0	2	3	2	3
17	Cádiz	3	0	3	0	3	3	3
18	Córdoba	3	1	0	2	5	7	3
19	Valladolid	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
20	Eldense	3	0	1	2	2	6	1
21	Albacete	3	0	0	3	2	5	0
22	Ceuta	3	0	0	3	1	10	0

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:30Scottish Championshipstats

Livingston v Stenhousem'r

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Livingston1X2	1.38	8.0%	-4.65%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.67	8.8%	-7.99%
#3	Livingston -1.5AH	2.00	10.8%	-9.36%
#4	Under 2.5O/U	2.05	8.8%	-9.68%
#5	Stenhousem'r handicapAH	1.65	10.8%	-10.70%

Market favourite: Livingston (67%) @ 1.38

Form · last 5, latest right

LivingstonLWLWLGF 4 · GA 3

Stenhousem'rDWWWWGF 8 · GA 2

Points per game

Livingston1.50season · 4 gm1.20last 5

Stenhousem'r2.50season · 4 gm2.60last 5

Head to head · LIV leads series 4-1

25 Jul 26Stenhousemuir 0–0 Livingston

21 Jan 23Stenhousemuir 1–3 Livingston

10 Nov 20Stenhousemuir 0–4 Livingston

15 Apr 17Stenhousemuir 0–1 Livingston

21 Mar 17Livingston 1–0 Stenhousemuir

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stenhousem'r	4	3	1	0	8	2	10
2	Partick	4	2	2	0	4	1	8
3	Raith	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
4	Arbroath	4	2	1	1	3	3	7
5	Livingston	4	2	0	2	4	3	6
6	Ayr	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
7	Dunfermline	4	1	2	1	2	3	5
8	Inverness CT	4	0	3	1	2	4	3
9	Morton	4	0	1	3	2	6	1
10	Queen's Park	4	0	1	3	1	6	1

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

How these are chosen

Two market facts do the ranking, and neither is a prediction.

Price. Short-priced selections lose far less than long ones — −0.5% at odds under 1.50 against −24% above 10.00, measured on every closing price in 362,970 matches. This is the favourite–long-shot bias. It is well known, already in the price, and cannot be beaten — only respected.

Commission. Each selection is then charged the actual margin on the line being offered, which today ranges across the card. A bet at 9% commission must overcome six more points than the same bet at 3%.

What would help more than any pick here is taking the best price across several bookmakers rather than one: worth about +2.8 points at match result, measured the same way. That is larger than the spread across this entire page.

calibration built 2026-08-27 · python3 picks.py --recalibrate