Generated 02 Nov 2026, 04:49 · kick-off times WET

Boet

Tuesday 03 November 2026

Every selection below has a negative expected return. This page ranks which bet loses least, because measured across 61,412 matches nothing in this project loses nothing. The model is not used to pick — it was measured at −6.8% and its own selections are its weakest output.

-1.08%

Best available
expected return

Matches
shown

Competitions
covered

Selections
per match

Today’s Top 5

The five least-bad selections on the whole board — one per match, ranked by expected return. Featured, not endorsed: every one of them still loses.

20:00 · Champions League

Barcelona v Aston Villa

Barcelona 1X2

1.26odds

-1.08%expected

20:00 · Champions League

LASK Linz v S Bratislava

LASK Linz 1X2

1.44odds

-1.29%expected

19:45 · Championship

Derby v Norwich City

Norwich City 1X2

2.10odds

-3.27%expected

20:00 · Champions League

Villarreal v PSG

PSG 1X2

1.62odds

-3.44%expected

19:45 · Championship

Watford v Lincoln City

Watford 1X2

2.45odds

-3.51%expected

Top 3 Multis

Built from the day’s shortest-priced favourites — the accumulators most likely to actually land. Every leg multiplies the commission: watch the expected return get worse with each leg added.

The Double1.81

BarcelonaBarcelona v Aston Villa · 20:001.26
LASK LinzLASK Linz v S Bratislava · 20:001.44

50% chance it lands-2.4% expected

The Treble2.95

BarcelonaBarcelona v Aston Villa · 20:001.26
LASK LinzLASK Linz v S Bratislava · 20:001.44
PSGVillarreal v PSG · 20:001.62

30% chance it lands-5.7% expected

The Five-Fold9.73

BarcelonaBarcelona v Aston Villa · 20:001.26
LASK LinzLASK Linz v S Bratislava · 20:001.44
PSGVillarreal v PSG · 20:001.62
Inter MilanFeyenoord v Inter Milan · 20:001.80
Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt v Lille · 20:001.83

8% chance it lands-12.6% expected

European Competitions

9 matches · ranked by expected return. Click a card for stats.

17:45Champions Leaguestats

Galatasaray v Stuttgart

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Galatasaray1X2	2.15	4.8%	-3.84%
#2	Stuttgart1X2	2.90	4.8%	-4.34%
#3	Under 3.5O/U	1.80	5.6%	-4.77%
#4	Over 3.5O/U	2.00	5.6%	-6.46%
#5	Galatasaray -0.5AH	2.05	8.8%	-7.36%

Market favourite: Galatasaray (44%) @ 2.15

Academia das Apostas pick — Handicap, Mais de 3 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

GalatasarayLWWWW

StuttgartLDLWW

Points per game

Galatasaray2.40last 5

Stuttgart1.40last 5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

17:45Champions Leaguestats

Shakhtar v Sporting

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Over 2.5O/U	1.71	4.8%	-4.06%
#2	Sporting1X2	1.95	5.3%	-4.20%
#3	Under 2.5O/U	2.15	4.8%	-5.75%
#4	Shakhtar1X2	3.60	5.3%	-5.78%
#5	Draw1X2	3.80	5.3%	-5.78%

Market favourite: Sporting (49%) @ 1.95

Academia das Apostas pick — Ambas equipas marcam? Sim

Form · last 5, latest right

ShakhtarLLDWD

SportingWWLLW

Points per game

Shakhtar1.00last 5

Sporting1.80last 5

Head to head · SCP leads series 2-0

04 Nov 08Sporting CP 1–0 Shakhtar Donetsk

22 Oct 08Shakhtar Donetsk 0–1 Sporting CP

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Champions Leaguestats

Atlético v Bayern

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Atlético1X2	2.60	4.4%	-3.97%
#2	Bayern1X2	2.50	4.4%	-3.97%
#3	Under 3.5O/U	1.74	5.1%	-4.28%
#4	Draw1X2	3.85	4.4%	-4.90%
#5	Over 3.5O/U	2.10	5.1%	-5.97%

Market favourite: Bayern (38%) @ 2.50

Academia das Apostas pick — Mais de 2,5 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

AtléticoWWDWW

BayernWDWWD

Points per game

Atlético2.60last 5

Bayern2.20last 5

Head to head · MUN leads series 3-1-1

01 Dec 20Atlético Madrid 1–1 Bayern Munich

21 Oct 20Bayern Munich 4–0 Atlético Madrid

06 Dec 16Bayern Munich 1–0 Atlético Madrid

28 Sep 16Atlético Madrid 1–0 Bayern Munich

03 May 16Bayern Munich 2–1 Atlético Madrid

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Champions Leaguestats

Barcelona v Aston Villa

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Barcelona1X2	1.26	4.4%	-1.08%
#2	Under 4.5O/U	1.67	5.5%	-4.67%
#3	Aston Villa handicapAH	2.25	7.4%	-5.99%
#4	Over 4.5O/U	2.20	5.5%	-6.36%
#5	Barcelona -1.5AH	1.59	7.4%	-7.33%

Market favourite: Barcelona (76%) @ 1.26

Academia das Apostas pick — Mais de 3,5 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

BarcelonaWWLLW

Aston VillaWWWLD

Points per game

Barcelona1.80last 5

Aston Villa2.00last 5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Champions Leaguestats

Bodo/Glimt v Lille

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Bodo/Glimt1X2	1.83	4.9%	-3.79%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.67	5.5%	-4.67%
#3	Lille1X2	3.85	4.9%	-5.38%
#4	Over 3.5O/U	2.20	5.5%	-6.36%
#5	Bodo/Glimt -0.5AH	1.77	7.7%	-7.66%

Market favourite: Bodo/Glimt (52%) @ 1.83

Academia das Apostas pick — Mais de 2,5 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

Bodo/GlimtWWLLW

LilleLDLDW

Points per game

Bodo/Glimt1.80last 5

Lille1.00last 5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Champions Leaguestats

Feyenoord v Inter Milan

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Inter Milan1X2	1.80	4.8%	-3.67%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.80	5.6%	-4.77%
#3	Feyenoord1X2	3.85	4.8%	-5.25%
#4	Over 3.5O/U	2.00	5.6%	-6.46%
#5	Draw1X2	4.30	4.8%	-7.78%

Market favourite: Inter Milan (53%) @ 1.80

Academia das Apostas pick — Total e Ambas marcam -> Mais de 2,5 Golos e Sim

Form · last 5, latest right

FeyenoordWWLDD

Inter MilanWWWWL

Points per game

Feyenoord1.60last 5

Inter Milan2.40last 5

Head to head · INT leads series 2-1-1

11 Mar 25Internazionale 2–1 Feyenoord Rotterdam

05 Mar 25Feyenoord Rotterdam 0–2 Internazionale

11 Apr 02Feyenoord Rotterdam 2–2 Internazionale

04 Apr 02Internazionale 0–1 Feyenoord Rotterdam

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Champions Leaguestats

LASK Linz v S Bratislava

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	LASK Linz1X2	1.44	4.6%	-1.29%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.80	5.6%	-4.77%
#3	Over 3.5O/U	2.00	5.6%	-6.46%
#4	LASK Linz -1.5AH	2.05	8.0%	-6.54%
#5	Draw1X2	5.00	4.6%	-7.61%

Market favourite: LASK Linz (66%) @ 1.44

Form · last 5, latest right

LASK LinzLWWLW

S BratislavaDWLLD

Points per game

LASK Linz1.80last 5

S Bratislava1.00last 5

20:00Champions Leaguestats

Man Utd v AS Roma

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Man Utd1X2	2.30	5.2%	-4.19%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.65	5.2%	-4.44%
#3	AS Roma1X2	2.75	5.2%	-4.70%
#4	Draw1X2	3.95	5.2%	-5.63%
#5	Over 3.5O/U	2.25	5.2%	-6.13%

Market favourite: Man Utd (41%) @ 2.30

Academia das Apostas pick — Mais de 2,5 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

Man UtdLDLLL

AS RomaWWDWW

Points per game

Man Utd0.20last 5

AS Roma2.60last 5

Head to head · MAN leads series 4-1

06 May 21AS Roma 3–2 Manchester United

29 Apr 21Manchester United 6–2 AS Roma

26 Jul 14AS Roma 2–3 Manchester United

09 Apr 08Manchester United 1–0 AS Roma

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Champions Leaguestats

Villarreal v PSG

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	PSG1X2	1.62	4.6%	-3.44%
#2	Over 3.5O/U	1.87	5.9%	-5.08%
#3	Under 3.5O/U	1.91	5.9%	-5.08%
#4	Villarreal +0.5AH	2.25	8.7%	-7.31%
#5	Villarreal1X2	4.70	4.6%	-7.54%

Market favourite: PSG (59%) @ 1.62

Academia das Apostas pick — Handicap, Mais de 3 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

VillarrealDLWWL

PSGWWWWW

Points per game

Villarreal1.40last 5

PSG3.00last 5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

Lower Leagues

12 matches · ranked by expected return. Click a card for stats.

19:45Championshipstats

Blackburn v Stoke

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Blackburn1X2	2.65	4.6%	-4.16%
#2	Stoke1X2	2.70	4.6%	-4.16%
#3	Draw1X2	3.35	4.6%	-5.09%
#4	Under 2.5O/U	1.74	6.2%	-5.44%
#5	Stoke handicapAH	2.50	8.3%	-6.83%

Market favourite: Blackburn (36%) @ 2.65

Academia das Apostas pick — Ambas equipas marcam? Sim

Form · last 5, latest right

BlackburnWWLWDGF 19 · GA 20

StokeWLWDWGF 20 · GA 16

Points per game

Blackburn1.38season · 13 gm2.00last 5

Stoke1.77season · 13 gm2.00last 5

Head to head · STK leads series 2-1-2

11 Apr 26Stoke City 1–1 Blackburn Rovers

04 Oct 25Blackburn Rovers 1–1 Stoke City

12 Mar 25Stoke City 1–0 Blackburn Rovers

06 Nov 24Blackburn Rovers 0–2 Stoke City

10 Feb 24Blackburn Rovers 3–1 Stoke City

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boro	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich City	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45Championshipstats

Charlton v Bolton

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Charlton1X2	2.25	5.0%	-4.04%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.71	6.0%	-5.17%
#3	Draw1X2	3.60	5.0%	-5.48%
#4	Bolton1X2	3.05	5.0%	-5.48%
#5	Charlton -0.5AH	2.15	8.1%	-6.63%

Market favourite: Charlton (42%) @ 2.25

Academia das Apostas pick — Mais/Menos Golos -> Mais de 2,25 Golos

Form · last 5, latest right

CharltonDDLLDGF 11 · GA 21

BoltonLWDLDGF 18 · GA 26

Points per game

Charlton1.08season · 13 gm0.60last 5

Bolton1.08season · 13 gm1.00last 5

Head to head · Series tied 2-2-1

21 Jan 25Bolton Wanderers 1–2 Charlton Athletic

24 Aug 24Charlton Athletic 2–0 Bolton Wanderers

17 Feb 24Bolton Wanderers 3–3 Charlton Athletic

28 Oct 23Charlton Athletic 0–2 Bolton Wanderers

28 Jan 23Charlton Athletic 1–2 Bolton Wanderers

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boro	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich City	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45Championshipstats

Derby v Norwich City

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Norwich City1X2	2.10	4.2%	-3.27%
#2	Derby1X2	3.30	4.2%	-4.71%
#3	Draw1X2	3.80	4.2%	-4.71%
#4	Over 2.5O/U	1.69	5.7%	-4.91%
#5	Norwich City handicapAH	2.00	7.4%	-6.03%

Market favourite: Norwich City (46%) @ 2.10

Form · last 5, latest right

DerbyDLLDLGF 11 · GA 25

Norwich CityLLLWWGF 23 · GA 24

Points per game

Derby0.54season · 13 gm0.40last 5

Norwich City1.15season · 13 gm1.20last 5

Head to head · NOR leads series 3-1-1

21 Apr 26Norwich City 2–1 Derby County

21 Oct 25Derby County 1–0 Norwich City

08 Feb 25Norwich City 1–1 Derby County

28 Sep 24Derby County 2–3 Norwich City

10 Apr 21Derby County 0–1 Norwich City

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boro	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich City	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45Championshipstats

Portsmouth v Swansea

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Portsmouth1X2	2.70	4.2%	-3.72%
#2	Swansea1X2	2.65	4.2%	-3.72%
#3	Draw1X2	3.40	4.2%	-4.65%
#4	Under 2.5O/U	1.80	5.6%	-4.77%
#5	Over 2.5O/U	2.00	5.6%	-6.46%

Market favourite: Swansea (36%) @ 2.65

Form · last 5, latest right

PortsmouthWWDWDGF 16 · GA 15

SwanseaWWLLDGF 20 · GA 13

Points per game

Portsmouth1.46season · 13 gm2.20last 5

Swansea2.00season · 13 gm1.40last 5

Head to head · SWA leads series 2-1-2

10 Mar 26Portsmouth 1–2 Swansea City

09 Dec 25Swansea City 1–0 Portsmouth

01 Jan 25Portsmouth 4–0 Swansea City

30 Nov 24Swansea City 2–2 Portsmouth

23 Apr 11Portsmouth 0–0 Swansea City

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boro	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich City	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45Championshipstats

Preston v Sheffield Utd

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Sheffield Utd1X2	2.10	5.2%	-4.22%
#2	Preston1X2	3.20	5.2%	-5.65%
#3	Draw1X2	3.80	5.2%	-5.65%
#4	Over 2.5O/U	1.77	6.5%	-5.74%
#5	Sheffield Utd handicapAH	2.05	8.0%	-6.54%

Market favourite: Sheffield Utd (45%) @ 2.10

Form · last 5, latest right

PrestonLLLDLGF 10 · GA 27

Sheffield UtdWLWDDGF 17 · GA 15

Points per game

Preston0.38season · 13 gm0.20last 5

Sheffield Utd1.46season · 13 gm1.60last 5

Head to head · SHU leads series 3-2

25 Apr 26Sheffield United 2–3 Preston North End

24 Oct 25Preston North End 3–2 Sheffield United

08 Mar 25Sheffield United 1–0 Preston North End

09 Aug 24Preston North End 0–2 Sheffield United

29 Apr 23Sheffield United 4–1 Preston North End

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boro	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich City	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45Championshipstats

QPR v Burnley

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	QPR1X2	2.00	4.5%	-3.52%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.69	5.7%	-4.91%
#3	Draw1X2	3.80	4.5%	-4.95%
#4	Burnley1X2	3.55	4.5%	-4.95%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	2.15	5.7%	-6.60%

Market favourite: QPR (48%) @ 2.00

Form · last 5, latest right

QPRDWLWLGF 21 · GA 16

BurnleyWDLLDGF 17 · GA 25

Points per game

QPR1.54season · 13 gm1.40last 5

Burnley0.69season · 13 gm1.00last 5

Head to head · BUR leads series 3-1-1

26 Apr 25Queens Park Rangers 0–5 Burnley

26 Oct 24Burnley 0–0 Queens Park Rangers

22 Apr 23Burnley 1–2 Queens Park Rangers

11 Dec 22Queens Park Rangers 0–3 Burnley

30 Apr 16Burnley 1–0 Queens Park Rangers

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boro	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich City	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45Championshipstats

Watford v Lincoln City

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Watford1X2	2.45	4.5%	-3.51%
#2	Lincoln City1X2	2.85	4.5%	-4.01%
#3	Draw1X2	3.50	4.5%	-4.94%
#4	Over 2.5O/U	1.91	5.9%	-5.08%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	1.87	5.9%	-5.08%

Market favourite: Watford (39%) @ 2.45

Form · last 5, latest right

WatfordLLWLLGF 12 · GA 23

Lincoln CityLLDWDGF 14 · GA 23

Points per game

Watford0.85season · 13 gm0.60last 5

Lincoln City1.15season · 13 gm1.00last 5

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boro	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich City	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45League Onestats

Huddersfield v Luton

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Huddersfield1X2	2.00	7.3%	-6.36%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.57	8.1%	-7.30%
#3	Draw1X2	3.70	7.3%	-7.80%
#4	Luton1X2	3.30	7.3%	-7.80%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	2.25	8.1%	-8.98%

Market favourite: Huddersfield (47%) @ 2.00

Form · last 5, latest right

HuddersfieldDWWWDGF 24 · GA 11

LutonLWWWWGF 24 · GA 20

Points per game

Huddersfield2.08season · 12 gm2.20last 5

Luton1.67season · 12 gm2.40last 5

Head to head · Series tied 2-2-1

27 Jan 26Huddersfield Town 1–0 Luton Town

25 Nov 25Luton Town 2–1 Huddersfield Town

01 Jan 23Huddersfield Town 1–2 Luton Town

04 Oct 22Luton Town 3–3 Huddersfield Town

16 May 22Huddersfield Town 1–0 Luton Town

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huddersfield	12	7	4	1	24	11	25
2	Stockport	13	7	2	4	24	13	23
3	Oxford Utd	11	6	4	1	19	10	22
4	Bradford	12	6	4	2	10	5	22
5	Plymouth	13	7	1	5	21	19	22
6	Reading	12	6	3	3	25	13	21
7	Cambridge	13	5	6	2	21	18	21
8	Luton	12	6	2	4	24	20	20
9	Sheffield Wed	12	5	4	3	21	13	19
10	Mansfield	11	5	3	3	20	16	18
11	Leicester	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
12	Burton Albion	13	4	5	4	18	19	17
13	Stevenage	11	4	3	4	15	11	15
14	MK Dons	12	3	6	3	16	19	15
15	Wycombe	12	3	6	3	19	23	15
16	Leyton Orient	12	4	2	6	16	14	14
17	Wimbledon	12	3	4	5	8	19	13
18	Doncaster	12	3	3	6	13	16	12
19	Notts County	11	2	5	4	11	14	11
20	Blackpool	11	3	2	6	16	20	11
21	Peterborough	12	2	4	6	11	21	10
22	Bromley	12	2	3	7	11	30	9
23	Barnsley	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
24	Wigan	12	2	1	9	8	20	7

19:45League Onestats

Wigan v Mansfield

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Mansfield1X2	2.15	7.2%	-6.28%
#2	Wigan1X2	3.15	7.2%	-7.71%
#3	Draw1X2	3.45	7.2%	-7.71%
#4	Over 2.5O/U	1.74	8.7%	-7.88%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	1.95	8.7%	-7.88%

Market favourite: Mansfield (43%) @ 2.15

Form · last 5, latest right

WiganWLLLWGF 8 · GA 20

MansfieldWDWWDGF 20 · GA 16

Points per game

Wigan0.58season · 12 gm1.20last 5

Mansfield1.64season · 11 gm2.20last 5

Head to head · WGA leads series 2-1-2

11 Apr 26Wigan Athletic 2–1 Mansfield Town

25 Oct 25Mansfield Town 1–1 Wigan Athletic

04 Mar 25Mansfield Town 0–0 Wigan Athletic

14 Jan 25Mansfield Town 0–2 Wigan Athletic

22 Oct 24Wigan Athletic 1–2 Mansfield Town

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huddersfield	12	7	4	1	24	11	25
2	Stockport	13	7	2	4	24	13	23
3	Oxford Utd	11	6	4	1	19	10	22
4	Bradford	12	6	4	2	10	5	22
5	Plymouth	13	7	1	5	21	19	22
6	Reading	12	6	3	3	25	13	21
7	Cambridge	13	5	6	2	21	18	21
8	Luton	12	6	2	4	24	20	20
9	Sheffield Wed	12	5	4	3	21	13	19
10	Mansfield	11	5	3	3	20	16	18
11	Leicester	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
12	Burton Albion	13	4	5	4	18	19	17
13	Stevenage	11	4	3	4	15	11	15
14	MK Dons	12	3	6	3	16	19	15
15	Wycombe	12	3	6	3	19	23	15
16	Leyton Orient	12	4	2	6	16	14	14
17	Wimbledon	12	3	4	5	8	19	13
18	Doncaster	12	3	3	6	13	16	12
19	Notts County	11	2	5	4	11	14	11
20	Blackpool	11	3	2	6	16	20	11
21	Peterborough	12	2	4	6	11	21	10
22	Bromley	12	2	3	7	11	30	9
23	Barnsley	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
24	Wigan	12	2	1	9	8	20	7

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45League Twostats

Northampton v Oldham

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Northampton1X2	2.35	7.2%	-6.25%
#2	Oldham1X2	2.95	7.2%	-6.76%
#3	Draw1X2	3.25	7.2%	-7.69%
#4	Northampton -0.5AH	2.25	9.4%	-7.94%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	1.67	8.8%	-7.99%

Market favourite: Northampton (40%) @ 2.35

Form · last 5, latest right

NorthamptonDWLWDGF 8 · GA 8

OldhamWWLDLGF 14 · GA 18

Points per game

Northampton1.18season · 11 gm1.60last 5

Oldham1.00season · 12 gm1.40last 5

Head to head · NHT leads series 3-1-1

01 Nov 25Oldham Athletic 3–1 Northampton Town

15 Apr 22Oldham Athletic 0–2 Northampton Town

23 Nov 21Northampton Town 2–1 Oldham Athletic

02 Nov 19Oldham Athletic 2–2 Northampton Town

04 May 19Oldham Athletic 2–5 Northampton Town

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	13	9	1	3	23	14	28
2	Barnet	12	7	4	1	27	17	25
3	Cheltenham	13	6	3	4	22	22	21
4	Crewe	13	5	6	2	16	16	21
5	York City	13	5	5	3	22	16	20
6	Walsall	12	4	7	1	18	11	19
7	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	24	21	19
8	Exeter	13	5	4	4	10	7	19
9	Accrington	13	4	6	3	22	16	18
10	Newport	14	4	6	4	20	17	18
11	Shrewsbury	13	5	3	5	16	20	18
12	Grimsby	13	4	5	4	19	16	17
13	Gillingham	13	4	5	4	18	18	17
14	Tranmere	13	3	7	3	16	16	16
15	Swindon	13	4	4	5	13	16	16
16	Bristol Rovers	13	5	1	7	16	20	16
17	Rochdale	13	4	3	6	15	22	15
18	Fleetwood Town	13	3	5	5	15	17	14
19	Northampton	11	3	4	4	8	8	13
20	Oldham	12	3	3	6	14	18	12
21	Colchester	12	2	6	4	11	16	12
22	Rotherham	13	2	6	5	17	23	12
23	Port Vale	11	3	3	5	6	12	12
24	Crawley	11	1	3	7	12	21	6

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Championshipstats

Birmingham v Millwall

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Birmingham1X2	1.95	5.3%	-4.17%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.80	5.6%	-4.77%
#3	Draw1X2	3.65	5.3%	-5.75%
#4	Millwall1X2	3.75	5.3%	-5.75%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	2.00	5.6%	-6.46%

Market favourite: Birmingham (49%) @ 1.95

Form · last 5, latest right

BirminghamWWWLDGF 23 · GA 13

MillwallWLDLWGF 23 · GA 21

Points per game

Birmingham1.77season · 13 gm2.00last 5

Millwall1.38season · 13 gm1.40last 5

Head to head · Series tied 2-2-1

25 Feb 26Millwall 3–0 Birmingham City

04 Nov 25Birmingham City 4–0 Millwall

09 Mar 24Millwall 1–0 Birmingham City

02 Sep 23Birmingham City 1–1 Millwall

18 Apr 23Millwall 0–1 Birmingham City

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boro	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich City	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Championshipstats

West Brom v Southampton

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	West Brom1X2	2.45	4.6%	-3.61%
#2	Southampton1X2	2.75	4.6%	-4.12%
#3	Over 2.5O/U	1.67	5.5%	-4.67%
#4	Draw1X2	3.65	4.6%	-5.05%
#5	West Brom -0.5AH	2.30	7.8%	-6.34%

Market favourite: West Brom (39%) @ 2.45

Form · last 5, latest right

West BromLWWDWGF 19 · GA 14

SouthamptonWWDWWGF 28 · GA 13

Points per game

West Brom1.85season · 13 gm2.00last 5

Southampton1.77season · 13 gm2.60last 5

Head to head · SOU leads series 3-0-2

11 Mar 26West Bromwich Albion 1–1 Southampton

09 Dec 25Southampton 3–2 West Bromwich Albion

17 May 24Southampton 3–1 West Bromwich Albion

12 May 24West Bromwich Albion 0–0 Southampton

16 Feb 24West Bromwich Albion 0–2 Southampton

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boro	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich City	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

How these are chosen

Two market facts do the ranking, and neither is a prediction.

Price. Short-priced selections lose far less than long ones — −0.5% at odds under 1.50 against −24% above 10.00, measured on every closing price in 362,970 matches. This is the favourite–long-shot bias. It is well known, already in the price, and cannot be beaten — only respected.

Commission. Each selection is then charged the actual margin on the line being offered, which today ranges across the card. A bet at 9% commission must overcome six more points than the same bet at 3%.

What would help more than any pick here is taking the best price across several bookmakers rather than one: worth about +2.8 points at match result, measured the same way. That is larger than the spread across this entire page.

calibration built 2026-08-27 · python3 picks.py --recalibrate