Generated 03 Nov 2026, 08:15 · kick-off times WET

Boet

Wednesday 04 November 2026

Every selection below has a negative expected return. This page ranks which bet loses least, because measured across 61,412 matches nothing in this project loses nothing. The model is not used to pick — it was measured at −6.8% and its own selections are its weakest output.

-0.96%

Best available
expected return

Matches
shown

Competitions
covered

Selections
per match

Today’s Top 5

The five least-bad selections on the whole board — one per match, ranked by expected return. Featured, not endorsed: every one of them still loses.

17:45 · Champions League

AEK Athens v Real Madrid

Real Madrid 1X2

1.25odds

-0.96%expected

20:00 · Champions League

Viking FK v Sabah

Viking FK 1X2

1.42odds

-1.69%expected

20:00 · Champions League

Slavia Prague v Arsenal

Arsenal 1X2

1.26odds

-2.03%expected

20:00 · Champions League

RB Leipzig v Man City

Man City 1X2

1.56odds

-3.05%expected

17:45 · Champions League

Fenerbahce v Liverpool

Liverpool 1X2

1.53odds

-3.42%expected

Top 3 Multis

Built from the day’s shortest-priced favourites — the accumulators most likely to actually land. Every leg multiplies the commission: watch the expected return get worse with each leg added.

The Double1.58

Real MadridAEK Athens v Real Madrid · 17:451.25
ArsenalSlavia Prague v Arsenal · 20:001.26

58% chance it lands-3.0% expected

The Treble2.24

Real MadridAEK Athens v Real Madrid · 17:451.25
ArsenalSlavia Prague v Arsenal · 20:001.26
Viking FKViking FK v Sabah · 20:001.42

39% chance it lands-4.6% expected

The Five-Fold5.31

Real MadridAEK Athens v Real Madrid · 17:451.25
ArsenalSlavia Prague v Arsenal · 20:001.26
Viking FKViking FK v Sabah · 20:001.42
LiverpoolFenerbahce v Liverpool · 17:451.53
Man CityRB Leipzig v Man City · 20:001.56

15% chance it lands-10.7% expected

European Competitions

10 matches · ranked by expected return. Click a card for stats.

15:30Europa Leaguestats

Rennes v Olympiacos

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Rennes1X2	2.20	5.1%	-4.14%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.74	5.1%	-4.28%
#3	Draw1X2	3.65	5.1%	-5.58%
#4	Olympiacos1X2	3.10	5.1%	-5.58%
#5	Rennes -0.5AH	2.15	7.3%	-5.87%

Market favourite: Rennes (43%) @ 2.20

Academia das Apostas pick — Ambas equipas marcam? Sim

Form · last 5, latest right

RennesWLDWL

OlympiacosWWWWW

Points per game

Rennes1.40last 5

Olympiacos3.00last 5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

17:45Champions Leaguestats

AEK Athens v Real Madrid

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Real Madrid1X2	1.25	4.3%	-0.96%
#2	Over 3.5O/U	1.80	5.6%	-4.77%
#3	Under 3.5O/U	2.00	5.6%	-6.46%
#4	AEK Athens +1.5AH	2.15	8.1%	-6.63%
#5	Real Madrid handicapAH	1.62	8.1%	-7.97%

Market favourite: Real Madrid (77%) @ 1.25

Academia das Apostas pick — Handicap, Mais de 3 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

AEK AthensWLLWD

Real MadridWWWWW

Points per game

AEK Athens1.40last 5

Real Madrid3.00last 5

Head to head

22 Oct 02Real Madrid 2–2 AEK Athens

02 Oct 02AEK Athens 3–3 Real Madrid

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

17:45Champions Leaguestats

Fenerbahce v Liverpool

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Liverpool1X2	1.53	4.5%	-3.42%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.80	5.6%	-4.77%
#3	Liverpool handicapAH	2.20	7.7%	-6.30%
#4	Over 3.5O/U	2.00	5.6%	-6.46%
#5	Fenerbahce1X2	5.50	4.5%	-7.52%

Market favourite: Liverpool (63%) @ 1.53

Academia das Apostas pick — Mais de 2,5 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

FenerbahceLWDLL

LiverpoolWWWWL

Points per game

Fenerbahce0.80last 5

Liverpool2.40last 5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Champions Leaguestats

Dortmund v Betis

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Dortmund1X2	1.71	4.9%	-3.75%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.62	5.0%	-4.23%
#3	Over 3.5O/U	2.30	5.0%	-5.92%
#4	Betis handicapAH	2.10	8.4%	-6.98%
#5	Draw1X2	4.20	4.9%	-7.86%

Market favourite: Dortmund (56%) @ 1.71

Academia das Apostas pick — Ambas equipas marcam? Sim

Form · last 5, latest right

DortmundDWWWD

BetisWLWDW

Points per game

Dortmund2.20last 5

Betis2.00last 5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Champions Leaguestats

FC Porto v Napoli

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	FC Porto1X2	2.00	4.5%	-3.52%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.71	4.8%	-4.06%
#3	Draw1X2	3.80	4.5%	-4.95%
#4	Napoli1X2	3.55	4.5%	-4.95%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	2.15	4.8%	-5.75%

Market favourite: FC Porto (48%) @ 2.00

Academia das Apostas pick — Ambas equipas marcam? Sim

Form · last 5, latest right

FC PortoWLLWW

NapoliLWDWL

Points per game

FC Porto1.80last 5

Napoli1.40last 5

Head to head · FCP leads series 1-0-1

20 Mar 14Napoli 2–2 FC Porto

13 Mar 14FC Porto 1–0 Napoli

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Champions Leaguestats

Lens v Como

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Como1X2	2.15	5.2%	-4.19%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.59	5.5%	-4.73%
#3	Lens1X2	3.00	5.2%	-5.63%
#4	Draw1X2	3.95	5.2%	-5.63%
#5	Over 3.5O/U	2.35	5.5%	-6.42%

Market favourite: Como (44%) @ 2.15

Academia das Apostas pick — Como para marcar mais de 1,5 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

LensLWLWL

ComoWWWWW

Points per game

Lens1.20last 5

Como3.00last 5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Champions Leaguestats

PSV v Club Brugge

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	PSV1X2	2.05	4.8%	-3.86%
#2	Over 3.5O/U	1.87	5.9%	-5.08%
#3	Under 3.5O/U	1.91	5.9%	-5.08%
#4	Club Brugge1X2	3.05	4.8%	-5.29%
#5	Draw1X2	4.30	4.8%	-7.81%

Market favourite: PSV (47%) @ 2.05

Academia das Apostas pick — Total e Ambas marcam -> Mais de 2,5 Golos e Sim

Form · last 5, latest right

PSVLLWDW

Club BruggeWWWWD

Points per game

PSV1.40last 5

Club Brugge2.60last 5

Head to head · Series tied 1-1-1

13 Jul 24PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Club Brugge

09 Jan 20PSV Eindhoven 1–2 Club Brugge

11 Jan 19PSV Eindhoven 2–1 Club Brugge

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Champions Leaguestats

RB Leipzig v Man City

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Man City1X2	1.56	4.2%	-3.05%
#2	Over 3.5O/U	1.87	5.9%	-5.08%
#3	Under 3.5O/U	1.91	5.9%	-5.08%
#4	RB Leipzig1X2	5.25	4.2%	-7.15%
#5	Draw1X2	4.80	4.2%	-7.15%

Market favourite: Man City (62%) @ 1.56

Academia das Apostas pick — Handicap, Mais de 3 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

RB LeipzigLLWWW

Man CityWWLWL

Points per game

RB Leipzig1.80last 5

Man City1.80last 5

Head to head · MNC leads series 3-1-1

28 Nov 23Manchester City 3–2 RB Leipzig

04 Oct 23RB Leipzig 1–3 Manchester City

14 Mar 23Manchester City 7–0 RB Leipzig

22 Feb 23RB Leipzig 1–1 Manchester City

07 Dec 21RB Leipzig 2–1 Manchester City

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Champions Leaguestats

Slavia Prague v Arsenal

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Arsenal1X2	1.26	5.4%	-2.03%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.65	5.2%	-4.44%
#3	Over 3.5O/U	2.25	5.2%	-6.13%
#4	Slavia Prague +1.5AH	2.05	8.0%	-6.54%
#5	Arsenal handicapAH	1.69	8.0%	-7.88%

Market favourite: Arsenal (75%) @ 1.26

Academia das Apostas pick — Mais de 2,5 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

Slavia PragueLLLLD

ArsenalWDWLW

Points per game

Slavia Prague0.20last 5

Arsenal2.00last 5

Head to head · ARS leads series 3-0-2

04 Nov 25Slavia Prague 0–3 Arsenal

15 Apr 21Slavia Prague 0–4 Arsenal

08 Apr 21Arsenal 1–1 Slavia Prague

07 Nov 07Slavia Prague 0–0 Arsenal

23 Oct 07Arsenal 7–0 Slavia Prague

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Champions Leaguestats

Viking FK v Sabah

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Viking FK1X2	1.42	5.0%	-1.69%
#2	Over 3.5O/U	1.91	4.8%	-3.98%
#3	Under 3.5O/U	1.91	4.8%	-3.98%
#4	Viking FK -1.5AH	1.95	7.7%	-7.66%
#5	Sabah handicapAH	1.77	7.7%	-7.66%

Market favourite: Viking FK (67%) @ 1.42

Academia das Apostas pick — Viking para vencer

Form · last 5, latest right

Viking FKDWLWL

SabahLWLWD

Points per game

Viking FK1.40last 5

Sabah1.40last 5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

Other Top Flights

1 match · ranked by expected return. Click a card for stats.

19:30Pro Leaguestats

KV Kortrijk v KV Mechelen

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	KV Kortrijk1X2	2.60	7.1%	-6.63%
#2	KV Mechelen1X2	2.55	7.1%	-6.63%
#3	Draw1X2	3.40	7.1%	-7.56%
#4	Over 2.5O/U	1.74	8.7%	-7.88%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	1.95	8.7%	-7.88%

Market favourite: KV Mechelen (37%) @ 2.55

Form · last 5, latest right

KV KortrijkLLWLDGF 3 · GA 19

KV MechelenLLDWWGF 10 · GA 17

Points per game

KV Kortrijk0.44season · 9 gm0.80last 5

KV Mechelen1.00season · 9 gm1.40last 5

Head to head · KVM leads series 4-1

29 Nov 24KV Kortrijk 3–1 KV Mechelen

20 Oct 24KV Mechelen 3–0 KV Kortrijk

24 Feb 24KV Mechelen 3–0 KV Kortrijk

26 Nov 23KV Kortrijk 0–3 KV Mechelen

21 Jan 23KV Mechelen 3–2 KV Kortrijk

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Brugge	10	9	0	1	26	8	27
2	Union SG	10	8	2	0	29	7	26
3	KAA Gent	9	8	1	0	19	4	25
4	Royal Charleroi	9	7	0	2	16	10	21
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	13	11	19
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	18	14	15
7	Westerlo	10	4	2	4	25	25	14
8	Lommel SK	9	3	3	3	11	11	12
9	Standard Liege	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
10	Zulte-Waregem	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
11	Antwerp	9	3	1	5	15	20	10
12	Waasland-Beveren	10	3	1	6	13	20	10
13	KV Mechelen	9	2	3	4	10	17	9
14	Sint-Truidense	9	2	2	5	17	19	8
15	La Louvière	9	2	1	6	11	18	7
16	OH Leuven	9	1	3	5	8	16	6
17	KV Kortrijk	9	1	1	7	3	19	4
18	Cercle Brugge	9	0	3	6	11	21	3

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

Lower Leagues

4 matches · ranked by expected return. Click a card for stats.

19:45Championshipstats

Cardiff v West Ham

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	West Ham1X2	2.00	5.2%	-4.19%
#2	Over 3.5O/U	1.95	5.8%	-4.98%
#3	Under 3.5O/U	1.83	5.8%	-4.98%
#4	Cardiff1X2	3.25	5.2%	-5.63%
#5	Cardiff +0.5AH	1.77	7.7%	-7.66%

Market favourite: West Ham (48%) @ 2.00

Academia das Apostas pick — Menos de 3,5 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

CardiffLWDWLGF 19 · GA 20

West HamDWWLLGF 33 · GA 18

Points per game

Cardiff1.08season · 13 gm1.40last 5

West Ham1.69season · 13 gm1.40last 5

Head to head · WHU leads series 4-1

09 Mar 19Cardiff City 2–0 West Ham United

04 Dec 18West Ham United 3–1 Cardiff City

11 Jan 14Cardiff City 0–2 West Ham United

24 Sep 13West Ham United 3–2 Cardiff City

17 Aug 13West Ham United 2–0 Cardiff City

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boro	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich City	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45Championshipstats

Wrexham v Boro

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Boro1X2	1.77	4.7%	-3.61%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.62	6.0%	-5.20%
#3	Wrexham +0.5AH	2.05	8.0%	-6.54%
#4	Under 2.5O/U	2.25	6.0%	-6.89%
#5	Wrexham1X2	4.20	4.7%	-7.71%

Market favourite: Boro (54%) @ 1.77

Academia das Apostas pick — Middlesbrough para vencer

Form · last 5, latest right

WrexhamDLWLDGF 15 · GA 19

BoroWWDWDGF 30 · GA 17

Points per game

Wrexham1.08season · 13 gm1.00last 5

Boro2.15season · 13 gm2.20last 5

Head to head · MID leads series 1-0-2

07 Aug 26Middlesbrough 1–0 Wrexham

02 May 26Wrexham 2–2 Middlesbrough

25 Oct 25Middlesbrough 1–1 Wrexham

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boro	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich City	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45League Onestats

Oxford Utd v Reading

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Reading1X2	2.45	7.1%	-6.09%
#2	Oxford Utd1X2	2.60	7.1%	-6.59%
#3	Reading handicapAH	2.35	8.7%	-7.23%
#4	Draw1X2	3.60	7.1%	-7.52%
#5	Over 2.5O/U	1.65	8.4%	-7.62%

Market favourite: Reading (38%) @ 2.45

Form · last 5, latest right

Oxford UtdDWDWDGF 20 · GA 11

ReadingLLWWDGF 25 · GA 13

Points per game

Oxford Utd1.92season · 12 gm1.80last 5

Reading1.69season · 13 gm1.40last 5

Head to head · REA leads series 2-0-2

03 Feb 24Oxford United 1–1 Reading

12 Dec 23Reading 1–1 Oxford United

25 Aug 04Oxford United 0–2 Reading

24 Sep 03Oxford United 1–3 Reading

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huddersfield	13	8	4	1	27	11	28
2	Stockport	14	8	2	4	26	14	26
3	Oxford Utd	12	6	5	1	20	11	23
4	Luton	13	7	2	4	26	20	23
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	21	19	23
6	Reading	13	6	4	3	25	13	22
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	10	8	22
8	Cambridge	14	5	6	3	21	21	21
9	Sheffield Wed	12	5	4	3	21	13	19
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	22	19	19
11	MK Dons	13	4	6	3	22	20	18
12	Mansfield	12	5	3	4	20	18	18
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	21	23	18
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	19	14	17
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	18	21	17
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	17	13	16
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	13	14	14
18	Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	9	21	13
19	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	14	22	12
20	Blackpool	11	3	2	6	16	20	11
21	Wigan	13	3	1	9	11	22	10
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	11	23	10
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	12	22	9
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	13	33	9

20:00Championshipstats

Bristol City v Wolves

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Wolves1X2	2.05	4.7%	-3.76%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.87	5.9%	-5.08%
#3	Under 2.5O/U	1.91	5.9%	-5.08%
#4	Bristol City1X2	3.55	4.7%	-5.20%
#5	Draw1X2	3.60	4.7%	-5.20%

Market favourite: Wolves (47%) @ 2.05

Academia das Apostas pick — Empate devolve: Wolverhampton

Form · last 5, latest right

Bristol CityDLLDDGF 15 · GA 17

WolvesLWDWWGF 23 · GA 16

Points per game

Bristol City1.38season · 13 gm0.60last 5

Wolves1.85season · 13 gm2.00last 5

Head to head · WOL leads series 3-1-1

11 Jan 25Bristol City 1–2 Wolverhampton Wanderers

17 Feb 19Bristol City 0–1 Wolverhampton Wanderers

30 Dec 17Bristol City 1–2 Wolverhampton Wanderers

12 Sep 17Wolverhampton Wanderers 3–3 Bristol City

08 Apr 17Bristol City 3–1 Wolverhampton Wanderers

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boro	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich City	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

How these are chosen

Two market facts do the ranking, and neither is a prediction.

Price. Short-priced selections lose far less than long ones — −0.5% at odds under 1.50 against −24% above 10.00, measured on every closing price in 362,970 matches. This is the favourite–long-shot bias. It is well known, already in the price, and cannot be beaten — only respected.

Commission. Each selection is then charged the actual margin on the line being offered, which today ranges across the card. A bet at 9% commission must overcome six more points than the same bet at 3%.

What would help more than any pick here is taking the best price across several bookmakers rather than one: worth about +2.8 points at match result, measured the same way. That is larger than the spread across this entire page.

calibration built 2026-08-27 · python3 picks.py --recalibrate