Generated 05 Nov 2026, 12:29 · kick-off times WET

Boet

Friday 06 November 2026

Every selection below has a negative expected return. This page ranks which bet loses least, because measured across 61,412 matches nothing in this project loses nothing. The model is not used to pick — it was measured at −6.8% and its own selections are its weakest output.

-1.53%

Best available
expected return

Matches
shown

Competitions
covered

Selections
per match

Today’s Top 5

The five least-bad selections on the whole board — one per match, ranked by expected return. Featured, not endorsed: every one of them still loses.

19:45 · FA Cup

Oxford City v Leicester

Leicester 1X2

1.36odds

-1.53%expected

19:30 · FA Cup

Bristol Rovers v Cambridge

Cambridge 1X2

2.25odds

-3.48%expected

20:00 · La Liga

Sevilla v Alavés

Sevilla 1X2

1.95odds

-3.48%expected

20:00 · Premier League

Everton v Coventry

Everton 1X2

1.71odds

-3.95%expected

20:00 · Championship

Derby v Bolton

Derby 1X2

2.40odds

-4.09%expected

Top 3 Multis

Built from the day’s shortest-priced favourites — the accumulators most likely to actually land. Every leg multiplies the commission: watch the expected return get worse with each leg added.

The Double2.17

LeicesterOxford City v Leicester · 19:451.36
CastellónCastellón v Eibar · 19:301.59

41% chance it lands-7.7% expected

The Treble3.61

LeicesterOxford City v Leicester · 19:451.36
CastellónCastellón v Eibar · 19:301.59
NancyNancy v Sochaux · 19:001.67

23% chance it lands-12.8% expected

The Five-Fold11.14

LeicesterOxford City v Leicester · 19:451.36
CastellónCastellón v Eibar · 19:301.59
NancyNancy v Sochaux · 19:001.67
EvertonEverton v Coventry · 20:001.71
Standard LiegeStandard Liege v Waasland-Beveren · 19:451.80

7% chance it lands-21.1% expected

Top 5 Leagues

4 matches · ranked by expected return. Click a card for stats.

19:45Serie Astats

Venezia v Udinese

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Over 2.5O/U	1.80	5.6%	-4.77%
#2	Under 2.5O/U	2.00	5.6%	-6.46%
#3	Venezia -0.5AH	2.15	8.1%	-6.63%
#4	Venezia1X2	2.20	7.8%	-6.81%
#5	Udinese handicapAH	1.62	8.1%	-7.97%

Market favourite: Venezia (42%) @ 2.20

Academia das Apostas pick — Mais/Menos Golos -> Mais de 2,25 Golos

Form · last 5, latest right

VeneziaLWLLLGF 6 · GA 20

UdineseLLLDLGF 11 · GA 23

Points per game

Venezia0.30season · 10 gm0.60last 5

Udinese0.50season · 10 gm0.20last 5

Head to head · UDI leads series 4-1

02 Sep 26Udinese 2–1 Venezia

01 Feb 25Udinese 3–2 Venezia

30 Oct 24Venezia 3–2 Udinese

10 Apr 22Venezia 1–2 Udinese

27 Aug 21Udinese 3–0 Venezia

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lazio	10	9	1	0	24	8	28
2	Inter Milan	10	8	1	1	26	13	25
3	AS Roma	10	7	3	0	28	10	24
4	Como	10	7	2	1	18	8	23
5	Milan	10	6	3	1	21	12	21
6	Frosinone	10	6	2	2	24	14	20
7	Juventus	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
8	Napoli	10	4	2	4	17	13	14
9	Bologna	10	4	2	4	14	13	14
10	Torino	10	4	1	5	14	16	13
11	Genoa	10	4	1	5	10	14	13
12	Cagliari	10	4	1	5	9	15	13
13	Atalanta	10	3	2	5	16	20	11
14	Lecce	10	3	0	7	11	21	9
15	Parma	10	2	2	6	8	15	8
16	Fiorentina	10	2	2	6	15	23	8
17	Sassuolo	10	2	2	6	16	26	8
18	Monza	10	2	1	7	17	24	7
19	Udinese	10	1	2	7	11	23	5
20	Venezia	10	1	0	9	6	20	3

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45Ligue 1stats

Toulouse v Strasbourg

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Toulouse1X2	2.05	5.3%	-4.33%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.59	5.5%	-4.73%
#3	Draw1X2	3.75	5.3%	-5.77%
#4	Strasbourg1X2	3.35	5.3%	-5.77%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	2.35	5.5%	-6.42%

Market favourite: Toulouse (46%) @ 2.05

Academia das Apostas pick — Mais de 2,5 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

ToulouseWDWDLGF 12 · GA 13

StrasbourgLLLLWGF 17 · GA 19

Points per game

Toulouse1.11season · 9 gm1.60last 5

Strasbourg1.11season · 9 gm0.60last 5

Head to head · Series tied 2-2-1

03 May 26Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse

06 Dec 25Toulouse 1–0 Strasbourg

16 Mar 25Strasbourg 2–1 Toulouse

12 Jan 25Toulouse 1–2 Strasbourg

07 Apr 24Toulouse 0–0 Strasbourg

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSG	9	6	2	1	21	10	20
2	Lille	9	5	3	1	12	6	18
3	Lyon	9	5	2	2	15	7	17
4	Paris FC	9	5	2	2	16	10	17
5	Rennes	9	5	1	3	20	19	16
6	Marseille	9	5	0	4	20	13	15
7	Monaco	9	4	3	2	12	10	15
8	Nice	9	4	2	3	13	12	14
9	Lens	9	4	1	4	16	13	13
10	Brest	9	3	3	3	16	12	12
11	Lorient	9	3	3	3	7	8	12
12	Toulouse	9	2	4	3	12	13	10
13	Strasbourg	9	3	1	5	17	19	10
14	Auxerre	9	3	1	5	13	23	10
15	Angers	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
16	Troyes	9	2	2	5	7	16	8
17	Le Mans	9	1	4	4	11	18	7
18	Le Havre AC	9	0	2	7	9	20	2

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Premier Leaguestats

Everton v Coventry

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Everton1X2	1.71	5.1%	-3.95%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.71	4.8%	-4.06%
#3	Under 2.5O/U	2.15	4.8%	-5.75%
#4	Coventry handicapAH	2.10	8.4%	-6.98%
#5	Draw1X2	4.00	5.1%	-8.06%

Market favourite: Everton (56%) @ 1.71

Academia das Apostas pick — Everton para vencer

Form · last 5, latest right

EvertonDLLWWGF 9 · GA 9

CoventryWWLLWGF 9 · GA 16

Points per game

Everton1.44season · 9 gm1.40last 5

Coventry1.00season · 9 gm1.80last 5

Head to head · COV leads series 1-0

30 Jul 24Everton 0–3 Coventry City

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arsenal	9	8	0	1	14	5	24
2	Man City	9	7	0	2	20	10	21
3	Brighton	9	6	1	2	24	7	19
4	Chelsea	9	5	1	3	19	15	16
5	Liverpool	9	4	3	2	11	9	15
6	Brentford	9	3	5	1	16	9	14
7	Everton	9	3	4	2	9	9	13
8	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	14	13	12
9	Spurs	9	3	3	3	10	10	12
10	Aston Villa	9	3	3	3	10	13	12
11	Hull	9	2	5	2	11	10	11
12	Leeds	9	2	5	2	9	8	11
13	Newcastle	9	3	2	4	12	15	11
14	Ipswich	9	3	2	4	14	18	11
15	Fulham	9	2	3	4	9	11	9
16	Coventry	9	3	0	6	9	16	9
17	Man Utd	9	1	4	4	10	15	7
18	C Palace	9	2	1	6	9	21	7
19	Nottm Forest	9	1	3	5	6	12	6
20	Sunderland	9	1	2	6	7	17	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00La Ligastats

Sevilla v Alavés

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Sevilla1X2	1.95	4.6%	-3.48%
#2	Under 2.5O/U	1.69	5.7%	-4.91%
#3	Draw1X2	3.45	4.6%	-5.06%
#4	Over 2.5O/U	2.15	5.7%	-6.60%
#5	Alavés1X2	4.10	4.6%	-7.58%

Market favourite: Sevilla (49%) @ 1.95

Academia das Apostas pick — Handicap, Mais de 2 golos

Form · last 5, latest right

SevillaDLWWLGF 17 · GA 19

AlavésDLLDLGF 15 · GA 17

Points per game

Sevilla1.55season · 11 gm1.40last 5

Alavés1.09season · 11 gm0.40last 5

Head to head · ALA leads series 2-1-2

14 Feb 26Sevilla 1–1 Alavés

17 Dec 25Alavés 1–0 Sevilla

20 Sep 25Alavés 1–2 Sevilla

20 Apr 25Sevilla 1–1 Alavés

20 Sep 24Alavés 2–1 Sevilla

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	46	12	30
2	Atlético	11	9	1	1	22	8	28
3	Real Madrid	11	9	0	2	28	10	27
4	Betis	11	7	2	2	18	15	23
5	Real Sociedad	11	6	1	4	20	20	19
6	Sevilla	11	5	2	4	17	19	17
7	Athletic	10	4	3	3	14	10	15
8	Deportivo	11	3	5	3	15	14	14
9	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15	15	12
10	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	10	10	12
11	Alavés	11	3	3	5	15	17	12
12	Rayo	10	3	3	4	15	20	12
13	Getafe	11	3	3	5	8	16	12
14	Espanyol	11	3	2	6	13	14	11
15	Osasuna	11	3	2	6	11	22	11
16	Racing	11	3	2	6	15	29	11
17	Elche	11	2	4	5	14	18	10
18	Levante	11	2	4	5	16	21	10
19	Valencia	11	2	3	6	8	17	9
20	Málaga	11	0	5	6	8	21	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

Primeira Liga

1 match · ranked by expected return. Click a card for stats.

20:45Primeira Ligastats

FC Famalicao v Arouca

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	FC Famalicao1X2	2.10	6.4%	-5.47%
#2	Under 2.5O/U	1.74	7.4%	-6.66%
#3	Draw1X2	3.40	6.4%	-6.91%
#4	Arouca1X2	3.40	6.4%	-6.91%
#5	FC Famalicao -0.5AH	2.00	9.2%	-7.76%

Market favourite: FC Famalicao (45%) @ 2.10

Academia das Apostas pick — Ambas equipas marcam? Sim

Form · last 5, latest right

FC FamalicaoWLLWDGF 14 · GA 14

AroucaDWWWWGF 13 · GA 7

Points per game

FC Famalicao1.00season · 10 gm1.40last 5

Arouca2.00season · 10 gm2.60last 5

Head to head · FCF leads series 2-1-2

06 Mar 26FC Famalicao 1–0 Arouca

05 Oct 25Arouca 1–1 FC Famalicao

05 Apr 25Arouca 1–2 FC Famalicao

09 Nov 24FC Famalicao 0–0 Arouca

23 Feb 24Arouca 3–2 FC Famalicao

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	25	4	30
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	27	8	25
3	Sporting	10	6	3	1	23	11	21
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	15	6	21
5	Arouca	10	6	2	2	13	7	20
6	Académico	10	6	2	2	15	12	20
7	Gil Vicente	10	4	3	3	8	7	15
8	Braga	10	4	2	4	12	11	14
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	13	17	14
10	Alverca	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
11	FC Famalicao	10	2	4	4	14	14	10
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Vitória	10	2	3	5	10	10	9
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	9	21	8
15	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	9	23	7
16	Nacional	10	2	1	7	10	19	7
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	5	19	7
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	5	19	2

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

Other Top Flights

3 matches · ranked by expected return. Click a card for stats.

17:00Super Ligstats

Gaziantep v Kasimpasa

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Gaziantep1X2	2.50	7.3%	-6.88%
#2	Kasimpasa1X2	2.70	7.3%	-6.88%
#3	Over 2.5O/U	1.83	8.0%	-7.25%
#4	Under 2.5O/U	1.87	8.0%	-7.25%
#5	Gaziantep -0.5AH	2.35	9.2%	-7.80%

Market favourite: Gaziantep (37%) @ 2.50

Form · last 5, latest right

GaziantepLLLLLGF 9 · GA 17

KasimpasaDLWWDGF 15 · GA 11

Points per game

Gaziantep0.80season · 10 gm0.00last 5

Kasimpasa1.70season · 10 gm1.60last 5

Head to head · GAZ leads series 3-0-2

09 Feb 26Gaziantep FK 2–1 Kasimpasa

30 Aug 25Kasimpasa 2–3 Gaziantep FK

24 May 25Gaziantep FK 2–2 Kasimpasa

05 Jan 25Kasimpasa 2–2 Gaziantep FK

21 Apr 24Gaziantep FK 2–0 Kasimpasa

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Galatasaray	10	8	1	1	23	12	25
2	Amed SFK	10	7	2	1	25	11	23
3	Trabzonspor	10	7	1	2	24	8	22
4	Besiktas	10	6	1	3	20	12	19
5	Kasimpasa	10	4	5	1	15	11	17
6	Fenerbahce	10	5	1	4	24	10	16
7	Çorum FK	10	5	1	4	21	16	16
8	Kocaelispor	10	5	1	4	11	9	16
9	Goztepe	10	4	3	3	21	17	15
10	Istanbul BB	10	4	2	4	17	16	14
11	Erzurum	10	4	2	4	9	15	14
12	Alanyaspor	10	3	3	4	9	16	12
13	Caykur Rizespor	10	3	2	5	11	15	11
14	Genclerbirli	10	3	2	5	12	18	11
15	Konyaspor	10	2	2	6	6	13	8
16	Gaziantep	10	2	2	6	9	17	8
17	Samsunspor	10	1	1	8	10	26	4
18	Eyupspor	10	1	0	9	3	28	3

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:00Eredivisiestats

Willem II v PEC Zwolle

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	PEC Zwolle1X2	2.25	7.5%	-6.51%
#2	Willem II1X2	2.75	7.5%	-7.01%
#3	Over 2.5O/U	1.53	8.1%	-7.29%
#4	Draw1X2	3.75	7.5%	-7.94%
#5	PEC Zwolle handicapAH	2.15	9.5%	-8.05%

Market favourite: PEC Zwolle (41%) @ 2.25

Form · last 5, latest right

Willem IILLLWLGF 10 · GA 39

PEC ZwolleLWDLWGF 12 · GA 23

Points per game

Willem II0.18season · 11 gm0.60last 5

PEC Zwolle1.00season · 11 gm1.40last 5

Head to head · PEC leads series 3-1-1

14 May 25Willem II 1–2 PEC Zwolle

13 Dec 24PEC Zwolle 0–1 Willem II

10 Mar 23Willem II 2–3 PEC Zwolle

09 Sep 22PEC Zwolle 2–2 Willem II

14 Jan 22PEC Zwolle 2–0 Willem II

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Feyenoord	11	7	4	0	33	12	25
2	Ajax	11	7	3	1	30	13	24
3	PSV	11	7	2	2	35	13	23
4	FC Twente	11	7	2	2	28	10	23
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	2	3	20	13	20
6	Fortuna	11	5	4	2	18	18	19
7	Heerenveen	11	5	3	3	19	13	18
8	FC Groningen	11	4	3	4	26	24	15
9	Cambuur	11	4	3	4	23	22	15
10	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	5	3	23	27	14
11	Sparta	11	3	3	5	20	26	12
12	FC Utrecht	11	3	3	5	19	31	12
13	NEC	11	2	5	4	17	19	11
14	PEC Zwolle	11	3	2	6	12	23	11
15	Excelsior	11	3	2	6	16	28	11
16	Telstar	11	2	3	6	16	23	9
17	ADO Den Haag	11	1	3	7	13	24	6
18	Willem II	11	0	2	9	10	39	2

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45Pro Leaguestats

Standard Liege v Waasland-Beveren

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Standard Liege1X2	1.80	6.8%	-5.72%
#2	Draw1X2	3.90	6.8%	-7.31%
#3	Waasland-Beveren1X2	3.90	6.8%	-7.31%
#4	Over 2.5O/U	1.61	8.8%	-7.99%
#5	Standard Liege -0.5AH	1.71	9.6%	-9.47%

Market favourite: Standard Liege (52%) @ 1.80

Form · last 5, latest right

Standard LiegeLLLLDGF 15 · GA 16

Waasland-BeverenWLLDLGF 13 · GA 20

Points per game

Standard Liege1.20season · 10 gm0.20last 5

Waasland-Beveren1.00season · 10 gm0.80last 5

Head to head · STL leads series 4-1

11 Jan 21Standard Liege 3–1 Waasland-Beveren

17 Aug 20Waasland-Beveren 1–2 Standard Liege

21 Dec 19Waasland-Beveren 2–1 Standard Liege

30 Oct 19Standard Liege 2–0 Waasland-Beveren

17 Mar 19Standard Liege 4–3 Waasland-Beveren

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Brugge	10	9	0	1	26	8	27
2	Union SG	10	8	2	0	29	7	26
3	KAA Gent	10	8	1	1	19	6	25
4	Royal Charleroi	10	8	0	2	21	12	24
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	13	11	19
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	18	14	15
7	Lommel SK	10	4	3	3	13	11	15
8	Westerlo	10	4	2	4	25	25	14
9	Standard Liege	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
10	Zulte-Waregem	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
11	Antwerp	10	3	1	6	16	22	10
12	Waasland-Beveren	10	3	1	6	13	20	10
13	OH Leuven	10	2	3	5	10	17	9
14	KV Mechelen	9	2	3	4	10	17	9
15	Sint-Truidense	10	2	2	6	18	21	8
16	La Louvière	10	2	1	7	13	23	7
17	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	13	22	6
18	KV Kortrijk	9	1	1	7	3	19	4

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

Lower Leagues

11 matches · ranked by expected return. Click a card for stats.

17:302. Bundesligastats

D Dresden v Greuther Furth

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	D Dresden1X2	1.87	7.2%	-6.08%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.56	7.8%	-6.98%
#3	Draw1X2	3.80	7.2%	-7.67%
#4	Greuther Furth1X2	3.65	7.2%	-7.67%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	2.30	7.8%	-8.67%

Market favourite: D Dresden (50%) @ 1.87

Form · last 5, latest right

D DresdenDWLWLGF 12 · GA 20

Greuther FurthDLWLWGF 13 · GA 16

Points per game

D Dresden0.80season · 10 gm1.40last 5

Greuther Furth1.20season · 10 gm1.40last 5

Head to head · SGF leads series 2-1-2

17 Jan 26Dynamo Dresden 2–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth

03 Aug 25SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–2 Dynamo Dresden

09 Jun 20Dynamo Dresden 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth

18 Oct 19SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–0 Dynamo Dresden

04 Apr 19SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–0 Dynamo Dresden

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hertha	10	9	1	0	23	8	28
2	1. FC Nürnberg	10	6	3	1	24	13	21
3	Wolfsburg	10	5	4	1	25	14	19
4	Kaiserslautern	10	5	3	2	9	7	18
5	Magdeburg	10	5	2	3	21	13	17
6	Heidenheim	10	4	3	3	17	18	15
7	Bielefeld	10	4	2	4	16	15	14
8	St. Pauli	10	2	6	2	12	12	12
9	Greuther Furth	10	3	3	4	13	16	12
10	Osnabruck	10	3	2	5	14	17	11
11	Bochum	10	3	2	5	8	11	11
12	Hannover	10	3	2	5	10	16	11
13	Karlsruher	10	3	2	5	13	21	11
14	Cottbus	10	2	4	4	18	20	10
15	E Braunschweig	10	3	1	6	16	18	10
16	Darmstadt	10	2	3	5	9	19	9
17	Holstein Kiel	10	1	5	4	10	12	8
18	D Dresden	10	2	2	6	12	20	8

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

17:302. Bundesligastats

E Braunschweig v Cottbus

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	E Braunschweig1X2	1.87	7.1%	-5.94%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.69	8.0%	-7.18%
#3	Cottbus1X2	3.50	7.1%	-7.53%
#4	Over 3.5O/U	2.05	8.0%	-8.87%
#5	E Braunschweig -0.5AH	1.80	9.0%	-8.96%

Market favourite: E Braunschweig (50%) @ 1.87

Form · last 5, latest right

E BraunschweigLWLWLGF 16 · GA 18

CottbusDLDDLGF 18 · GA 20

Points per game

E Braunschweig1.00season · 10 gm1.20last 5

Cottbus1.00season · 10 gm0.60last 5

Head to head · Series tied 1-1-2

06 May 13TSV Eintracht Braunschweig 0–0 Energie Cottbus

24 Nov 12Energie Cottbus 3–1 TSV Eintracht Braunschweig

11 Mar 12Energie Cottbus 1–1 TSV Eintracht Braunschweig

17 Sep 11TSV Eintracht Braunschweig 3–1 Energie Cottbus

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hertha	10	9	1	0	23	8	28
2	1. FC Nürnberg	10	6	3	1	24	13	21
3	Wolfsburg	10	5	4	1	25	14	19
4	Kaiserslautern	10	5	3	2	9	7	18
5	Magdeburg	10	5	2	3	21	13	17
6	Heidenheim	10	4	3	3	17	18	15
7	Bielefeld	10	4	2	4	16	15	14
8	St. Pauli	10	2	6	2	12	12	12
9	Greuther Furth	10	3	3	4	13	16	12
10	Osnabruck	10	3	2	5	14	17	11
11	Bochum	10	3	2	5	8	11	11
12	Hannover	10	3	2	5	10	16	11
13	Karlsruher	10	3	2	5	13	21	11
14	Cottbus	10	2	4	4	18	20	10
15	E Braunschweig	10	3	1	6	16	18	10
16	Darmstadt	10	2	3	5	9	19	9
17	Holstein Kiel	10	1	5	4	10	12	8
18	D Dresden	10	2	2	6	12	20	8

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:00Ligue 2stats

Nancy v Sochaux

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Nancy1X2	1.67	6.7%	-5.61%
#2	Draw1X2	3.80	6.7%	-7.19%
#3	Over 2.5O/U	1.87	8.0%	-7.25%
#4	Under 2.5O/U	1.83	8.0%	-7.25%
#5	Sochaux handicapAH	2.15	8.8%	-7.35%

Market favourite: Nancy (56%) @ 1.67

Form · last 5, latest right

NancyWWWWWGF 16 · GA 9

SochauxDDLLDGF 8 · GA 14

Points per game

Nancy2.00season · 11 gm3.00last 5

Sochaux1.00season · 11 gm0.60last 5

Head to head · SOC leads series 1-0-4

09 Apr 22Sochaux 1–0 AS Nancy Lorraine

30 Oct 21AS Nancy Lorraine 0–0 Sochaux

10 Apr 21AS Nancy Lorraine 0–0 Sochaux

05 Dec 20Sochaux 1–1 AS Nancy Lorraine

04 Feb 20AS Nancy Lorraine 1–1 Sochaux

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St. Étienne	11	8	1	2	23	11	25
2	Montpellier	11	7	3	1	16	6	24
3	Nancy	11	7	1	3	16	9	22
4	Reims	11	5	6	0	22	12	21
5	Pau	11	6	2	3	16	11	20
6	Red Star FC	11	5	2	4	14	16	17
7	Annecy	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
8	Dijon FCO	11	4	3	4	20	19	15
9	Guingamp	11	4	2	5	16	15	14
10	Metz	11	3	5	3	17	17	14
11	Rodez Aveyron	11	4	1	6	17	22	13
12	Dunkerque	11	3	3	5	14	17	12
13	Sochaux	11	2	5	4	8	14	11
14	Boulogne	11	1	7	3	7	8	10
15	Nantes	11	2	3	6	12	18	9
16	Stade Laval	11	2	3	6	14	21	9
17	Clermont Foot	11	0	8	3	10	15	8
18	Grenoble	11	2	2	7	10	20	8

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:00Ligue 2stats

Boulogne v Annecy

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Boulogne1X2	2.45	6.9%	-5.97%
#2	Under 2.5O/U	1.57	8.1%	-7.30%
#3	Draw1X2	3.05	6.9%	-7.40%
#4	Annecy1X2	3.00	6.9%	-7.40%
#5	Boulogne -0.5AH	2.30	9.6%	-8.16%

Market favourite: Boulogne (38%) @ 2.45

Form · last 5, latest right

BoulogneLDWDLGF 7 · GA 8

AnnecyLWLWLGF 14 · GA 15

Points per game

Boulogne0.91season · 11 gm1.00last 5

Annecy1.45season · 11 gm1.20last 5

Head to head · ANN leads series 1-0-1

02 May 26Boulogne 1–2 Annecy

31 Oct 25Annecy 1–1 Boulogne

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St. Étienne	11	8	1	2	23	11	25
2	Montpellier	11	7	3	1	16	6	24
3	Nancy	11	7	1	3	16	9	22
4	Reims	11	5	6	0	22	12	21
5	Pau	11	6	2	3	16	11	20
6	Red Star FC	11	5	2	4	14	16	17
7	Annecy	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
8	Dijon FCO	11	4	3	4	20	19	15
9	Guingamp	11	4	2	5	16	15	14
10	Metz	11	3	5	3	17	17	14
11	Rodez Aveyron	11	4	1	6	17	22	13
12	Dunkerque	11	3	3	5	14	17	12
13	Sochaux	11	2	5	4	8	14	11
14	Boulogne	11	1	7	3	7	8	10
15	Nantes	11	2	3	6	12	18	9
16	Stade Laval	11	2	3	6	14	21	9
17	Clermont Foot	11	0	8	3	10	15	8
18	Grenoble	11	2	2	7	10	20	8

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:00Ligue 2stats

Dunkerque v Guingamp

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Guingamp1X2	2.35	7.5%	-6.52%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.67	7.6%	-6.83%
#3	Dunkerque1X2	2.75	7.5%	-7.03%
#4	Guingamp handicapAH	2.25	9.4%	-7.94%
#5	Draw1X2	3.50	7.5%	-7.96%

Market favourite: Guingamp (40%) @ 2.35

Form · last 5, latest right

DunkerqueLLWDLGF 14 · GA 17

GuingampLLLWWGF 16 · GA 15

Points per game

Dunkerque1.09season · 11 gm0.80last 5

Guingamp1.27season · 11 gm1.20last 5

Head to head · DUN leads series 2-1-2

06 Feb 26Dunkerque 0–0 Guingamp

23 Sep 25Guingamp 2–1 Dunkerque

14 May 25Dunkerque 1–0 Guingamp

07 Apr 25Dunkerque 3–1 Guingamp

04 Jan 25Guingamp 1–1 Dunkerque

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St. Étienne	11	8	1	2	23	11	25
2	Montpellier	11	7	3	1	16	6	24
3	Nancy	11	7	1	3	16	9	22
4	Reims	11	5	6	0	22	12	21
5	Pau	11	6	2	3	16	11	20
6	Red Star FC	11	5	2	4	14	16	17
7	Annecy	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
8	Dijon FCO	11	4	3	4	20	19	15
9	Guingamp	11	4	2	5	16	15	14
10	Metz	11	3	5	3	17	17	14
11	Rodez Aveyron	11	4	1	6	17	22	13
12	Dunkerque	11	3	3	5	14	17	12
13	Sochaux	11	2	5	4	8	14	11
14	Boulogne	11	1	7	3	7	8	10
15	Nantes	11	2	3	6	12	18	9
16	Stade Laval	11	2	3	6	14	21	9
17	Clermont Foot	11	0	8	3	10	15	8
18	Grenoble	11	2	2	7	10	20	8

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:00Ligue 2stats

Grenoble v Reims

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Reims1X2	1.91	7.6%	-6.44%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.87	8.0%	-7.25%
#3	Under 2.5O/U	1.83	8.0%	-7.25%
#4	Grenoble1X2	3.65	7.6%	-8.02%
#5	Draw1X2	3.60	7.6%	-8.02%

Market favourite: Reims (49%) @ 1.91

Form · last 5, latest right

GrenobleDLLLLGF 10 · GA 20

ReimsDDWDDGF 22 · GA 12

Points per game

Grenoble0.73season · 11 gm0.20last 5

Reims1.91season · 11 gm1.40last 5

Head to head · GRE leads series 2-0-3

14 Feb 26Grenoble 0–0 Stade de Reims

04 Oct 25Stade de Reims 2–4 Grenoble

08 Apr 11Grenoble 1–1 Stade de Reims

22 Oct 10Stade de Reims 4–1 Grenoble

18 Jan 08Stade de Reims 3–4 Grenoble

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St. Étienne	11	8	1	2	23	11	25
2	Montpellier	11	7	3	1	16	6	24
3	Nancy	11	7	1	3	16	9	22
4	Reims	11	5	6	0	22	12	21
5	Pau	11	6	2	3	16	11	20
6	Red Star FC	11	5	2	4	14	16	17
7	Annecy	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
8	Dijon FCO	11	4	3	4	20	19	15
9	Guingamp	11	4	2	5	16	15	14
10	Metz	11	3	5	3	17	17	14
11	Rodez Aveyron	11	4	1	6	17	22	13
12	Dunkerque	11	3	3	5	14	17	12
13	Sochaux	11	2	5	4	8	14	11
14	Boulogne	11	1	7	3	7	8	10
15	Nantes	11	2	3	6	12	18	9
16	Stade Laval	11	2	3	6	14	21	9
17	Clermont Foot	11	0	8	3	10	15	8
18	Grenoble	11	2	2	7	10	20	8

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:00Ligue 2stats

Montpellier v Metz

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Montpellier1X2	2.00	7.7%	-6.73%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.67	8.8%	-7.99%
#3	Draw1X2	3.30	7.7%	-8.17%
#4	Metz1X2	3.65	7.7%	-8.17%
#5	Montpellier -0.5AH	1.95	8.7%	-8.59%

Market favourite: Montpellier (46%) @ 2.00

Form · last 5, latest right

MontpellierDWWWWGF 16 · GA 6

MetzDLWDLGF 17 · GA 17

Points per game

Montpellier2.18season · 11 gm2.60last 5

Metz1.27season · 11 gm1.00last 5

Head to head · MON leads series 4-0-1

11 Jan 26Metz 0–4 Montpellier

18 Feb 24Montpellier 3–0 Metz

17 Dec 23Metz 0–1 Montpellier

01 May 22Montpellier 2–2 Metz

01 Dec 21Metz 1–3 Montpellier

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St. Étienne	11	8	1	2	23	11	25
2	Montpellier	11	7	3	1	16	6	24
3	Nancy	11	7	1	3	16	9	22
4	Reims	11	5	6	0	22	12	21
5	Pau	11	6	2	3	16	11	20
6	Red Star FC	11	5	2	4	14	16	17
7	Annecy	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
8	Dijon FCO	11	4	3	4	20	19	15
9	Guingamp	11	4	2	5	16	15	14
10	Metz	11	3	5	3	17	17	14
11	Rodez Aveyron	11	4	1	6	17	22	13
12	Dunkerque	11	3	3	5	14	17	12
13	Sochaux	11	2	5	4	8	14	11
14	Boulogne	11	1	7	3	7	8	10
15	Nantes	11	2	3	6	12	18	9
16	Stade Laval	11	2	3	6	14	21	9
17	Clermont Foot	11	0	8	3	10	15	8
18	Grenoble	11	2	2	7	10	20	8

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:30Serie Bstats

Ascoli v Palermo

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Palermo1X2	2.20	7.7%	-6.69%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.62	8.1%	-7.26%
#3	Ascoli1X2	3.05	7.7%	-8.12%
#4	Draw1X2	3.40	7.7%	-8.12%
#5	Palermo handicapAH	2.10	9.9%	-8.46%

Market favourite: Palermo (42%) @ 2.20

Form · last 5, latest right

AscoliDDWWDGF 16 · GA 6

PalermoWWWDWGF 24 · GA 12

Points per game

Ascoli1.90season · 10 gm1.80last 5

Palermo2.60season · 10 gm2.60last 5

Head to head · PAL leads series 3-1-1

05 May 24Palermo 2–2 Ascoli

16 Sep 23Ascoli 0–1 Palermo

29 Jan 23Ascoli 1–2 Palermo

27 Aug 22Palermo 2–3 Ascoli

04 May 19Ascoli 1–2 Palermo

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palermo	10	8	2	0	24	12	26
2	Modena	10	6	2	2	18	10	20
3	Ascoli	10	5	4	1	16	6	19
4	Mantova	10	5	3	2	15	11	18
5	Verona	10	4	3	3	19	13	15
6	Avellino	10	4	3	3	15	10	15
7	Benevento	10	4	3	3	14	10	15
8	Pisa	10	4	3	3	18	15	15
9	Sudtirol	10	3	5	2	11	10	14
10	Padova	10	4	2	4	10	11	14
11	Cremonese	10	3	3	4	10	11	12
12	Cesena	10	2	6	2	11	14	12
13	Arezzo	10	3	2	5	9	19	11
14	Virtus Entella	10	2	4	4	11	12	10
15	Carrarese	10	3	1	6	9	13	10
16	Juve Stabia	10	3	4	3	11	11	9
17	Vicenza	10	2	3	5	13	20	9
18	Empoli	10	2	2	6	10	17	8
19	Sampdoria	10	2	2	6	10	18	8
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	11	22	6

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:30Segunda Divisionstats

Castellón v Eibar

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Castellón1X2	1.59	7.4%	-6.24%
#2	Eibar handicapAH	2.25	9.4%	-7.94%
#3	Over 2.5O/U	1.56	8.7%	-7.94%
#4	Castellón -0.5AH	1.54	9.4%	-9.28%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	2.25	8.7%	-9.63%

Market favourite: Castellón (59%) @ 1.59

Form · last 5, latest right

CastellónLWWWDGF 23 · GA 5

EibarWLDLDGF 21 · GA 14

Points per game

Castellón2.25season · 12 gm2.00last 5

Eibar1.92season · 12 gm1.00last 5

Head to head · CAS leads series 3-1-1

31 May 26Castellón 2–1 Eibar

12 Oct 25Eibar 0–0 Castellón

15 Feb 25Castellón 2–0 Eibar

17 Aug 24Eibar 1–0 Castellón

14 Jun 09Castellón 4–0 Eibar

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Castellón	12	8	3	1	23	5	27
2	Almería	12	8	2	2	23	10	26
3	Eibar	12	7	2	3	21	14	23
4	Granada	12	7	2	3	20	14	23
5	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	15	7	22
6	Gijón	12	7	1	4	13	13	22
7	Girona	12	6	3	3	22	11	21
8	Burgos	12	6	3	3	17	13	21
9	Real Oviedo	12	5	3	4	17	15	18
10	CD Sabadell	12	4	5	3	12	11	17
11	Las Palmas	12	5	2	5	17	21	17
12	Córdoba	12	5	1	6	19	22	16
13	Valladolid	12	4	3	5	20	19	15
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	15	17	15
15	Eldense	12	4	2	6	13	17	14
16	Celta Fortuna	12	3	4	5	18	23	13
17	Leganés	12	3	3	6	10	20	12
18	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	17	22	11
19	Real Sociedad II	12	3	2	7	15	22	11
20	Cádiz	12	2	4	6	15	16	10
21	Albacete	12	2	1	9	10	23	7
22	Ceuta	12	1	2	9	10	27	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:30Scottish Championshipstats

Raith v Dunfermline

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Raith1X2	2.70	7.6%	-7.10%
#2	Dunfermline1X2	2.65	7.6%	-7.10%
#3	Under 2.5O/U	1.65	8.4%	-7.62%
#4	Draw1X2	3.05	7.6%	-8.03%
#5	Dunfermline handicapAH	2.50	9.7%	-8.28%

Market favourite: Dunfermline (35%) @ 2.65

Form · last 5, latest right

RaithWDLWDGF 20 · GA 9

DunfermlineDWWWDGF 15 · GA 7

Points per game

Raith1.85season · 13 gm1.60last 5

Dunfermline1.85season · 13 gm2.20last 5

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Partick	13	7	4	2	17	7	25
2	Raith	13	7	3	3	20	9	24
3	Dunfermline	13	6	6	1	15	7	24
4	Stenhousem'r	13	7	2	4	13	12	23
5	Livingston	13	6	2	5	18	11	20
6	Inverness CT	13	5	4	4	17	16	19
7	Ayr	12	4	3	5	13	14	15
8	Arbroath	13	3	2	8	7	22	11
9	Morton	12	3	1	8	12	20	10
10	Queen's Park	13	2	1	10	8	22	7

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

20:00Championshipstats

Derby v Bolton

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Derby1X2	2.40	5.1%	-4.09%
#2	Bolton1X2	2.75	5.1%	-4.60%
#3	Over 2.5O/U	1.67	5.5%	-4.67%
#4	Draw1X2	3.70	5.1%	-5.53%
#5	Derby -0.5AH	2.30	7.8%	-6.34%

Market favourite: Derby (40%) @ 2.40

Academia das Apostas pick — Ambas equipas marcam? Sim

Form · last 5, latest right

DerbyLLDLLGF 11 · GA 29

BoltonWDLLDGF 19 · GA 26

Points per game

Derby0.50season · 14 gm0.20last 5

Bolton1.21season · 14 gm1.00last 5

Head to head · DER leads series 3-1-1

16 Mar 24Derby County 1–0 Bolton Wanderers

02 Sep 23Bolton Wanderers 2–1 Derby County

21 Jan 23Derby County 2–1 Bolton Wanderers

27 Dec 22Bolton Wanderers 0–0 Derby County

13 Apr 19Derby County 4–0 Bolton Wanderers

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boro	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Birmingham	14	7	5	2	26	13	26
3	Stoke	14	8	2	4	22	17	26
4	Swansea	14	8	2	4	21	16	26
5	West Brom	14	7	4	3	20	15	25
6	Southampton	14	8	4	2	29	14	24
7	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	Sheffield Utd	14	6	4	4	20	17	22
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	19	16	22
11	QPR	14	5	6	3	22	17	21
12	Norwich City	14	6	0	8	27	24	18
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	23	24	18
14	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	20	22	18
15	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
16	Bolton	14	5	2	7	19	26	17
17	Lincoln City	14	4	3	7	14	24	15
18	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
19	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	13	23	14
21	Charlton	14	3	5	6	11	22	14
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	18	26	10
23	Derby	14	1	4	9	11	29	7
24	Preston	14	1	2	11	12	30	5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

Domestic Cups

2 matches · ranked by expected return. Click a card for stats.

19:30FA Cupstats

Bristol Rovers v Cambridge

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Cambridge1X2	2.25	4.4%	-3.48%
#2	Bristol Rovers1X2	3.00	4.4%	-4.91%
#3	Draw1X2	3.75	4.4%	-4.91%
#4	Over 2.5O/U	1.62	6.0%	-5.20%
#5	Cambridge handicapAH	2.10	7.6%	-6.20%

Market favourite: Cambridge (43%) @ 2.25

Form · last 5, latest right

Bristol RoversLLLDL

CambridgeDLDLD

Points per game

Bristol Rovers0.20last 5

Cambridge0.60last 5

Head to head · BRI leads series 3-2

14 Feb 26Cambridge United 3–1 Bristol Rovers

02 Dec 25Bristol Rovers 2–2 Cambridge United

23 Aug 25Bristol Rovers 1–0 Cambridge United

12 Aug 25Bristol Rovers 0–2 Cambridge United

04 Jan 25Cambridge United 0–1 Bristol Rovers

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

19:45FA Cupstats

Oxford City v Leicester

	Pick	Odds	Margin	Exp.
#1	Leicester1X2	1.36	4.9%	-1.53%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.62	5.0%	-4.23%
#3	Over 3.5O/U	2.30	5.0%	-5.92%
#4	Draw1X2	5.50	4.9%	-7.84%
#5	Oxford City +1.5AH	1.80	7.9%	-7.86%

Market favourite: Leicester (70%) @ 1.36

Form · last 5, latest right

Oxford CityLLWWD

LeicesterWWLWD

Points per game

Oxford City1.40last 5

Leicester2.00last 5

Full stats at Academia das Apostas ↗

How these are chosen

Two market facts do the ranking, and neither is a prediction.

Price. Short-priced selections lose far less than long ones — −0.5% at odds under 1.50 against −24% above 10.00, measured on every closing price in 362,970 matches. This is the favourite–long-shot bias. It is well known, already in the price, and cannot be beaten — only respected.

Commission. Each selection is then charged the actual margin on the line being offered, which today ranges across the card. A bet at 9% commission must overcome six more points than the same bet at 3%.

What would help more than any pick here is taking the best price across several bookmakers rather than one: worth about +2.8 points at match result, measured the same way. That is larger than the spread across this entire page.

calibration built 2026-08-27 · python3 picks.py --recalibrate